The Impact of Consumption Patterns on the Generation of Municipal Solid Waste in China: Evidences from Provincial Data

Municipal solid waste (MSW) is the derivative of urban development and it is harmful to the environment and residents’ health. But with sustainable MSW management, MSW can be applied as an important renewable energy. In order to achieve sustainable MSW management, it is necessary to understand the mechanism of MSW generation. Consumption patterns differ in various regions of China, which make the influencing factors of MSW have unique characteristics. To explore the factors influencing MSW generation in China, this study builds a global model based on the panel data of 30 Chinese provinces. Considering regional heterogeneity, provinces are clustered into three groups according to economic and consumption indicators. Each group has its own local model of MSW generation. The results show that household expenditure on housing and the tertiary industry proportion show opposite impacting directions in high-level and low-level provinces. Finally, with the combination of the grey model (1,1) (GM(1,1)) and multiple linear regression (MLR), we find that developing provinces will generate more MSW than developed regions. According to this, different provinces should control MSW by optimizing consumption pattern and efficient fiscal expenditure, and developing provinces should pay attention to MSW management and learn from the experience of developed provinces.