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Cigarette consumption estimates for 71 countries from 1970 to 2015: systematic collection of comparable data to facilitate quasi-experimental evaluations of national and global tobacco control interventions

OBJECTIVES: To collect, appraise, select, and report the best available national estimates of cigarette consumption since 1970. DESIGN: Systematic collection of comparable data. SETTING AND POPULATION: 71 of 214 countries for which searches for national cigarette consumption data were conducted, rep...

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Autores principales: Hoffman, Steven J, Mammone, Jessica, Rogers Van Katwyk, Susan, Sritharan, Lathika, Tran, Maxwell, Al-Khateeb, Safa, Grjibovski, Andrej, Gunn, Elliot, Kamali-Anaraki, Sara, Li, Ben, Mahendren, Mathura, Mansoor, Yasmeen, Natt, Navneet, Nwokoro, Ejike, Randhawa, Harkanwal, Yunju Song, Melodie, Vercammen, Kelsey, Wang, Carolyne, Woo, Julia, Poirier, Mathieu JP
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6582269/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31217224
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l2231
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author Hoffman, Steven J
Mammone, Jessica
Rogers Van Katwyk, Susan
Sritharan, Lathika
Tran, Maxwell
Al-Khateeb, Safa
Grjibovski, Andrej
Gunn, Elliot
Kamali-Anaraki, Sara
Li, Ben
Mahendren, Mathura
Mansoor, Yasmeen
Natt, Navneet
Nwokoro, Ejike
Randhawa, Harkanwal
Yunju Song, Melodie
Vercammen, Kelsey
Wang, Carolyne
Woo, Julia
Poirier, Mathieu JP
author_facet Hoffman, Steven J
Mammone, Jessica
Rogers Van Katwyk, Susan
Sritharan, Lathika
Tran, Maxwell
Al-Khateeb, Safa
Grjibovski, Andrej
Gunn, Elliot
Kamali-Anaraki, Sara
Li, Ben
Mahendren, Mathura
Mansoor, Yasmeen
Natt, Navneet
Nwokoro, Ejike
Randhawa, Harkanwal
Yunju Song, Melodie
Vercammen, Kelsey
Wang, Carolyne
Woo, Julia
Poirier, Mathieu JP
author_sort Hoffman, Steven J
collection PubMed
description OBJECTIVES: To collect, appraise, select, and report the best available national estimates of cigarette consumption since 1970. DESIGN: Systematic collection of comparable data. SETTING AND POPULATION: 71 of 214 countries for which searches for national cigarette consumption data were conducted, representing over 95% of global cigarette consumption and 85% of the world’s population. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Validated cigarette consumption data covering 1970-2015 were identified for 71 countries. Data quality appraisal was conducted by two research team members in duplicate, with greatest weight given to official government sources. All data were standardised into units of cigarettes consumed per year in each country, a detailed accounting of data quality and sourcing was prepared, and all collected data and metadata were made freely available in an open access dataset. RESULTS: Cigarette consumption fell in most countries over the past three decades but trends in country specific consumption were highly variable. For example, China consumed 2.5 million metric tonnes (MMT) of cigarettes in 2013, more than Russia (0.36 MMT), the United States (0.28 MMT), Indonesia (0.28 MMT), Japan (0.20 MMT), and the next 35 highest consuming countries combined. The US and Japan achieved reductions of more than 0.1 MMT from a decade earlier, whereas Russian consumption plateaued, and Chinese and Indonesian consumption increased by 0.75 MMT and 0.1 MMT, respectively. These data generally concord with modelled country level data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and have the additional advantage of not smoothing year-over-year discontinuities that are necessary for robust quasi-experimental impact evaluations. CONCLUSIONS: Before this study, publicly available data on cigarette consumption have been limited; they have been inappropriate for quasi-experimental impact evaluations (modelled data), held privately by companies (proprietary data), or widely dispersed across many national statistical agencies and research organisations (disaggregated data). This new dataset confirms that cigarette consumption has decreased in most countries over the past three decades, but that secular country specific consumption trends are highly variable. The findings underscore the need for more robust processes in data reporting, ideally built into international legal instruments or other mandated processes. To monitor the impact of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control and other tobacco control interventions, data on national tobacco production, trade, and sales should be routinely collected and openly reported.
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spelling pubmed-65822692019-07-05 Cigarette consumption estimates for 71 countries from 1970 to 2015: systematic collection of comparable data to facilitate quasi-experimental evaluations of national and global tobacco control interventions Hoffman, Steven J Mammone, Jessica Rogers Van Katwyk, Susan Sritharan, Lathika Tran, Maxwell Al-Khateeb, Safa Grjibovski, Andrej Gunn, Elliot Kamali-Anaraki, Sara Li, Ben Mahendren, Mathura Mansoor, Yasmeen Natt, Navneet Nwokoro, Ejike Randhawa, Harkanwal Yunju Song, Melodie Vercammen, Kelsey Wang, Carolyne Woo, Julia Poirier, Mathieu JP BMJ Research OBJECTIVES: To collect, appraise, select, and report the best available national estimates of cigarette consumption since 1970. DESIGN: Systematic collection of comparable data. SETTING AND POPULATION: 71 of 214 countries for which searches for national cigarette consumption data were conducted, representing over 95% of global cigarette consumption and 85% of the world’s population. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Validated cigarette consumption data covering 1970-2015 were identified for 71 countries. Data quality appraisal was conducted by two research team members in duplicate, with greatest weight given to official government sources. All data were standardised into units of cigarettes consumed per year in each country, a detailed accounting of data quality and sourcing was prepared, and all collected data and metadata were made freely available in an open access dataset. RESULTS: Cigarette consumption fell in most countries over the past three decades but trends in country specific consumption were highly variable. For example, China consumed 2.5 million metric tonnes (MMT) of cigarettes in 2013, more than Russia (0.36 MMT), the United States (0.28 MMT), Indonesia (0.28 MMT), Japan (0.20 MMT), and the next 35 highest consuming countries combined. The US and Japan achieved reductions of more than 0.1 MMT from a decade earlier, whereas Russian consumption plateaued, and Chinese and Indonesian consumption increased by 0.75 MMT and 0.1 MMT, respectively. These data generally concord with modelled country level data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and have the additional advantage of not smoothing year-over-year discontinuities that are necessary for robust quasi-experimental impact evaluations. CONCLUSIONS: Before this study, publicly available data on cigarette consumption have been limited; they have been inappropriate for quasi-experimental impact evaluations (modelled data), held privately by companies (proprietary data), or widely dispersed across many national statistical agencies and research organisations (disaggregated data). This new dataset confirms that cigarette consumption has decreased in most countries over the past three decades, but that secular country specific consumption trends are highly variable. The findings underscore the need for more robust processes in data reporting, ideally built into international legal instruments or other mandated processes. To monitor the impact of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control and other tobacco control interventions, data on national tobacco production, trade, and sales should be routinely collected and openly reported. BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. 2019-06-19 /pmc/articles/PMC6582269/ /pubmed/31217224 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l2231 Text en Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt and build upon this work, for commercial use, provided the original work is properly cited. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Research
Hoffman, Steven J
Mammone, Jessica
Rogers Van Katwyk, Susan
Sritharan, Lathika
Tran, Maxwell
Al-Khateeb, Safa
Grjibovski, Andrej
Gunn, Elliot
Kamali-Anaraki, Sara
Li, Ben
Mahendren, Mathura
Mansoor, Yasmeen
Natt, Navneet
Nwokoro, Ejike
Randhawa, Harkanwal
Yunju Song, Melodie
Vercammen, Kelsey
Wang, Carolyne
Woo, Julia
Poirier, Mathieu JP
Cigarette consumption estimates for 71 countries from 1970 to 2015: systematic collection of comparable data to facilitate quasi-experimental evaluations of national and global tobacco control interventions
title Cigarette consumption estimates for 71 countries from 1970 to 2015: systematic collection of comparable data to facilitate quasi-experimental evaluations of national and global tobacco control interventions
title_full Cigarette consumption estimates for 71 countries from 1970 to 2015: systematic collection of comparable data to facilitate quasi-experimental evaluations of national and global tobacco control interventions
title_fullStr Cigarette consumption estimates for 71 countries from 1970 to 2015: systematic collection of comparable data to facilitate quasi-experimental evaluations of national and global tobacco control interventions
title_full_unstemmed Cigarette consumption estimates for 71 countries from 1970 to 2015: systematic collection of comparable data to facilitate quasi-experimental evaluations of national and global tobacco control interventions
title_short Cigarette consumption estimates for 71 countries from 1970 to 2015: systematic collection of comparable data to facilitate quasi-experimental evaluations of national and global tobacco control interventions
title_sort cigarette consumption estimates for 71 countries from 1970 to 2015: systematic collection of comparable data to facilitate quasi-experimental evaluations of national and global tobacco control interventions
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6582269/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31217224
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l2231
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