Prognostic Impact of Longitudinal Monitoring of Radiomic Features in Patients with Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Tumor growth dynamics vary substantially in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We aimed to develop biomarkers reflecting longitudinal change of radiomic features in NSCLC and evaluate their prognostic power. Fifty-three patients with advanced NSCLC were included. Three primary variables reflecting patterns of longitudinal change were extracted: area under the curve of longitudinal change (AUC1), beta value reflecting slope over time, and AUC2, a value obtained by considering the slope and area over the longitudinal change of features. We constructed models for predicting survival with multivariate cox regression, and identified the performance of these models. AUC2 exhibited an excellent correlation between patterns of longitudinal volume change and a significant difference in overall survival time. Multivariate regression analysis based on cut-off values of radiomic features extracted from baseline CT and AUC2 showed that kurtosis of positive pixel values and surface area from baseline CT, AUC2 of density, skewness of positive pixel values, and entropy at inner portion were associated with overall survival. For the prediction model, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) were 0.948 and 0.862 at 1 and 3 years of follow-up, respectively. Longitudinal change of radiomic tumor features may serve as prognostic biomarkers in patients with advanced NSCLC.