Evaluating and Predicting the Probability of Death in Patients with Non-Metastatic Osteosarcoma: A Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND: Osteosarcoma is one of the most common bone tumors, with strong local aggressiveness and early metastasis. The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiological data and evaluate the prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and cause-specific survival (CSS) in patients with non-metastatic osteosarcoma. MATERIAL/METHODS: Patients histologically diagnosed with non-metastatic osteosarcoma between 2005 and 2014 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Survival analysis, machine learning, and Lasso regression were used to identify the prognostic factors for OS and CSS, and the accuracy of the nomograms was tested and compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging systems. RESULTS: The entire cohort comprised 1000 patients with non-metastatic osteosarcoma. The multivariable analysis suggested that age, tumor size, grade, and American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) T staging were independent prognostic factors for OS and CSS. Additionally, the nomograms based on these results could better predict probability of OS (Internal validation C-index, 0.7095) and CSS (0.7100) compared with the sixth (OS: 0.613; CSS: 0.628) and seventh edition AJCC staging systems (0.602, 0.613). CONCLUSIONS: Relatively young age and low histopathological grade were favorable factors for both OS and CSS. Nomograms based on multivariable models worked well in predicting the probability of death for patients with non-metastatic osteosarcoma.