Ideal vs. real: a systematic review on handling covariates in randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND: In theory, efficient design of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) involves randomization algorithms that control baseline variable imbalance efficiently, and corresponding analysis involves pre-specified adjustment for baseline covariates. This review sought to explore techniques for handling potentially influential baseline variables in both the design and analysis phase of RCTs. METHODS: We searched PubMed for articles indexed “randomized controlled trial”, published in the NEJM, JAMA, BMJ, or Lancet for two time periods: 2009 and 2014 (before and after updated CONSORT guidelines). Upon screening (343), 298 articles underwent full review and data abstraction. RESULTS: Typical articles reported on superiority (86%), multicenter (92%), two-armed (79%) trials; 81% of trials involved covariates in the allocation and 84% presented adjusted analysis results. The majority reported a stratified block method (69%) of allocation, and of the trials reporting adjusted analyses, 91% were pre-specified. Trials published in 2014 were more likely to report adjusted analyses (87% vs. 79%, p = 0.0100) and more likely to pre-specify adjustment in analyses (95% vs. 85%, p = 0.0045). Studies initiated in later years (2010 or later) were less likely to use an adaptive method of randomization (p = 0.0066; 7% of those beginning in 2010 or later vs. 31% of those starting before 2000) but more likely to report a pre-specified adjusted analysis (p = 0.0029; 97% for those initiated in 2010 or later vs. 69% of those started before 2000). CONCLUSION: While optimal reporting procedures and pre-specification of adjusted analyses for RCTs tend to be progressively more prevalent over time, we see the opposite effect on reported use of covariate-adaptive randomization methods. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12874-019-0787-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.