Location-level processes drive the establishment of alien bird populations worldwide

Human-mediated translocation of species to areas beyond their natural distribution (here termed aliens1) is a key signature of the Anthropocene2 and a primary driver of global biodiversity loss and environmental change3. Stemming the tide of invasions requires understanding why some species fail to establish alien populations, while others succeed. To achieve this, we need to integrate the impact of features of the introduction site, the species introduced, and the specific introduction event. However, determining which, if any, location-level factors affect establishment success has proved difficult due to the multiple spatial, temporal and phylogenetic axes along which environmental variation may influence population survival. Here, we apply Bayesian hierarchical regression analysis to a global spatially and temporally explicit database of alien bird introduction events4 to show that environmental conditions at the introduction location, notably climatic suitability and the presence of other alien species groups are the primary determinants of establishment success. Species-level traits and founding population size (propagule pressure) exert secondary, but still important, effects on success. Thus, current trajectories of anthropogenic environmental change will most likely facilitate future incursions by alien species, but predicting future invasions will require integrating multiple location, species, and event-level characteristics.