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Population density and water balance influence the global occurrence of hepatitis E epidemics
In developing countries, the waterborne transmission of hepatitis E virus (HEV), caused by HEV genotypes 1 (HEV-1) and 2 (HEV-2), leads to the onset of large recurrent outbreaks. HEV infections are of particular concern among pregnant women, due to very high mortality rates (up to 70%). Unfortunatel...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2019
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6624372/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31296895 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-46475-3 |
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author | Carratalà, Anna Joost, Stéphane |
author_facet | Carratalà, Anna Joost, Stéphane |
author_sort | Carratalà, Anna |
collection | PubMed |
description | In developing countries, the waterborne transmission of hepatitis E virus (HEV), caused by HEV genotypes 1 (HEV-1) and 2 (HEV-2), leads to the onset of large recurrent outbreaks. HEV infections are of particular concern among pregnant women, due to very high mortality rates (up to 70%). Unfortunately, good understanding of the factors that trigger the occurrence of HEV epidemics is currently lacking; therefore, anticipating the onset of an outbreak is yet not possible. In order to map the geographical regions at higher risk of HEV epidemics and the conditions most favorable for the transmission of the virus, we compiled a dataset of HEV waterborne outbreaks and used it to obtain models of geographical suitability for HEV across the planet. The main three variables that best predict the geographical distribution of HEV outbreaks at global scale are population density, annual potential evapotranspiration and precipitation seasonality. At a regional scale, the temporal occurrence of HEV outbreaks in the Ganges watershed is negatively correlated with the discharge of the river (r = −0.77). Combined, our findings suggest that ultimately, population density and water balance are main parameters influencing the occurrence of HEV-1 and HEV-2 outbreaks. This study expands the current understanding of the combination of factors shaping the biogeography and seasonality of waterborne viral pathogens such as HEV-1 and HEV-2, and contributes to developing novel concepts for the prediction and control of human waterborne viruses in the near future. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6624372 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2019 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-66243722019-07-19 Population density and water balance influence the global occurrence of hepatitis E epidemics Carratalà, Anna Joost, Stéphane Sci Rep Article In developing countries, the waterborne transmission of hepatitis E virus (HEV), caused by HEV genotypes 1 (HEV-1) and 2 (HEV-2), leads to the onset of large recurrent outbreaks. HEV infections are of particular concern among pregnant women, due to very high mortality rates (up to 70%). Unfortunately, good understanding of the factors that trigger the occurrence of HEV epidemics is currently lacking; therefore, anticipating the onset of an outbreak is yet not possible. In order to map the geographical regions at higher risk of HEV epidemics and the conditions most favorable for the transmission of the virus, we compiled a dataset of HEV waterborne outbreaks and used it to obtain models of geographical suitability for HEV across the planet. The main three variables that best predict the geographical distribution of HEV outbreaks at global scale are population density, annual potential evapotranspiration and precipitation seasonality. At a regional scale, the temporal occurrence of HEV outbreaks in the Ganges watershed is negatively correlated with the discharge of the river (r = −0.77). Combined, our findings suggest that ultimately, population density and water balance are main parameters influencing the occurrence of HEV-1 and HEV-2 outbreaks. This study expands the current understanding of the combination of factors shaping the biogeography and seasonality of waterborne viral pathogens such as HEV-1 and HEV-2, and contributes to developing novel concepts for the prediction and control of human waterborne viruses in the near future. Nature Publishing Group UK 2019-07-11 /pmc/articles/PMC6624372/ /pubmed/31296895 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-46475-3 Text en © The Author(s) 2019 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Carratalà, Anna Joost, Stéphane Population density and water balance influence the global occurrence of hepatitis E epidemics |
title | Population density and water balance influence the global occurrence of hepatitis E epidemics |
title_full | Population density and water balance influence the global occurrence of hepatitis E epidemics |
title_fullStr | Population density and water balance influence the global occurrence of hepatitis E epidemics |
title_full_unstemmed | Population density and water balance influence the global occurrence of hepatitis E epidemics |
title_short | Population density and water balance influence the global occurrence of hepatitis E epidemics |
title_sort | population density and water balance influence the global occurrence of hepatitis e epidemics |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6624372/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31296895 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-46475-3 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT carratalaanna populationdensityandwaterbalanceinfluencetheglobaloccurrenceofhepatitiseepidemics AT jooststephane populationdensityandwaterbalanceinfluencetheglobaloccurrenceofhepatitiseepidemics |