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Bayesian modelling of a hepatitis A outbreak in men who have sex with men in Sydney, Australia, 1991/1992
To control hepatitis A spread by vaccination, accurate estimation of transmissibility is vital. Regan et al. (2016) proposed a model of hepatitis A virus (HAV) transmission and used least squares to calibrate model to the 1991/1992 HAV outbreak in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Sydney, Australia...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Cambridge University Press
2019
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6625190/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31364583 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268819001109 |
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author | Zhang, X.-S. Charlett, A. |
author_facet | Zhang, X.-S. Charlett, A. |
author_sort | Zhang, X.-S. |
collection | PubMed |
description | To control hepatitis A spread by vaccination, accurate estimation of transmissibility is vital. Regan et al. (2016) proposed a model of hepatitis A virus (HAV) transmission and used least squares to calibrate model to the 1991/1992 HAV outbreak in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Sydney, Australia. Based on the estimate of R(0), they obtained the critical immunity of 70% and showed that when the proportion immune <70%, there is a definite chance for outbreaks to take place. The immunity level from previous surveys ranges from 32% to 64% after 1996 while no outbreaks in Australian MSMs have been reported since 1996. Further noticing the ill-distributed parameters, we argue that their estimate of R(0) is not accurate. In this study, we revisited their model by Bayesian inference, which has privilege over least squares. We obtained the appropriate posterior distributions of parameters and the estimate of R(0) ranges from 1.38 to 2.89, indicating a critical immunity of 65%. The reduction in critical immunity and outbreak probabilities predicts the absence of outbreaks in Australian MSMs since 1996. Our study shows the importance of using appropriate methods to provide reliable and accurate estimates of the model parameters especially the transmissibility. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6625190 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2019 |
publisher | Cambridge University Press |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-66251902019-07-17 Bayesian modelling of a hepatitis A outbreak in men who have sex with men in Sydney, Australia, 1991/1992 Zhang, X.-S. Charlett, A. Epidemiol Infect Original Paper To control hepatitis A spread by vaccination, accurate estimation of transmissibility is vital. Regan et al. (2016) proposed a model of hepatitis A virus (HAV) transmission and used least squares to calibrate model to the 1991/1992 HAV outbreak in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Sydney, Australia. Based on the estimate of R(0), they obtained the critical immunity of 70% and showed that when the proportion immune <70%, there is a definite chance for outbreaks to take place. The immunity level from previous surveys ranges from 32% to 64% after 1996 while no outbreaks in Australian MSMs have been reported since 1996. Further noticing the ill-distributed parameters, we argue that their estimate of R(0) is not accurate. In this study, we revisited their model by Bayesian inference, which has privilege over least squares. We obtained the appropriate posterior distributions of parameters and the estimate of R(0) ranges from 1.38 to 2.89, indicating a critical immunity of 65%. The reduction in critical immunity and outbreak probabilities predicts the absence of outbreaks in Australian MSMs since 1996. Our study shows the importance of using appropriate methods to provide reliable and accurate estimates of the model parameters especially the transmissibility. Cambridge University Press 2019-06-26 /pmc/articles/PMC6625190/ /pubmed/31364583 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268819001109 Text en © The Author(s) 2019 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the same Creative Commons licence is included and the original work is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use. |
spellingShingle | Original Paper Zhang, X.-S. Charlett, A. Bayesian modelling of a hepatitis A outbreak in men who have sex with men in Sydney, Australia, 1991/1992 |
title | Bayesian modelling of a hepatitis A outbreak in men who have sex with men in Sydney, Australia, 1991/1992 |
title_full | Bayesian modelling of a hepatitis A outbreak in men who have sex with men in Sydney, Australia, 1991/1992 |
title_fullStr | Bayesian modelling of a hepatitis A outbreak in men who have sex with men in Sydney, Australia, 1991/1992 |
title_full_unstemmed | Bayesian modelling of a hepatitis A outbreak in men who have sex with men in Sydney, Australia, 1991/1992 |
title_short | Bayesian modelling of a hepatitis A outbreak in men who have sex with men in Sydney, Australia, 1991/1992 |
title_sort | bayesian modelling of a hepatitis a outbreak in men who have sex with men in sydney, australia, 1991/1992 |
topic | Original Paper |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6625190/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31364583 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268819001109 |
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