A Driver’s Physiology Sensor-Based Driving Risk Prediction Method for Lane-Changing Process Using Hidden Markov Model

Lane changing is considered as one of the most dangerous driving behaviors because drivers have to deal with the traffic conflicts on both the current and target lanes. This study aimed to propose a method of predicting the driving risks during the lane-changing process using drivers’ physiology measurement data and vehicle dynamic data. All the data used in the proposed model were obtained by portable sensors with the capability of recording data in the actual driving process. A hidden Markov model (HMM) was proposed to link driving risk with drivers’ physiology information and vehicle dynamic data. The two-factor indicators were established to evaluate the performances of eye movement, heart rate variability, and vehicle dynamic parameters on driving risk. The standard deviation of normal to normal R–R intervals of the heart rate (SDNN), fixation duration, saccade range, and average speed were then selected as the input of the HMM. The HMM was trained and tested using field-observed data collected in Xi’an City. The proposed model using the data from the physiology measurement sensor can identify dangerous driving state from normal driving state and predict the transition probability between these two states. The results match the perceptions of the tested drivers with an accuracy rate of 90.67%. The proposed model can be used to develop proactive crash prevention strategies.