The influence of multiple episodes of acute kidney injury on survival and progression to end stage kidney disease in patients with chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are common syndromes associated with significant morbidity, mortality and cost. The extent to which repeated AKI episodes may cumulatively affect the rate of progression of all-cause CKD has not previously been investigated. In this study, we explored the hypothesis that repeated episodes of AKI increase the rate of renal functional deterioration loss in patients recruited to a large, all-cause CKD cohort. METHODS: Patients from the Salford Kidney Study (SKS) were considered. Application of KDIGO criteria to all available laboratory measurements of renal function identified episodes of AKI. A competing risks model was specified for four survival events: Stage 1 AKI; stage 2 or 3 AKI; dialysis initiation or transplant before AKI event; death before AKI event. The model was adjusted for patient age, gender, smoking status, alcohol intake, diabetic status, cardiovascular co-morbidities, and primary renal disease. Analyses were performed for patients’ first, second, and third or more AKI episodes. RESULTS: A total of 48,338 creatinine measurements were available for 2287 patients (median 13 measures per patient [IQR 6–26]). There was a median age of 66.8years, median eGFR of 28.4 and 31.6% had type 1 or 2 diabetes. Six hundred and forty three (28.1%) patients suffered one or more AKI events; 1000 AKI events (58% AKI 1) in total were observed over a median follow-up of 2.6 years [IQR 1.1–3.2]. In patients who suffered an AKI, a second AKI was more likely to be a stage 2 or 3 AKI than stage 1 [HR 2.04, p 0.01]. AKI events were associated with progression to RRT, with multiple episodes of AKI progressively increasing likelihood of progression to RRT [HR 14.4 after 1 episode of AKI, HR 28.4 after 2 episodes of AKI]. However, suffering one or more AKI events was not associated with an increased risk of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: AKI events are associated with more rapid CKD deterioration as hypothesised, and also with a greater severity of subsequent AKI. However, our study did not find an association of AKI with increased mortality risk in this CKD cohort.