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Modelling targeted rabies vaccination strategies for a domestic dog population with heterogeneous roaming patterns

Australia is currently canine rabies free. However, communities located on the northern coastline–such as the Northern Peninsula Area (NPA), Queensland–are at risk of an incursion due to their large populations of susceptible free-roaming dogs and proximity to rabies-infected Indonesian islands. A r...

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Autores principales: Hudson, Emily G., Brookes, Victoria J., Dürr, Salome, Ward, Michael P.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6638970/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31283780
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007582
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author Hudson, Emily G.
Brookes, Victoria J.
Dürr, Salome
Ward, Michael P.
author_facet Hudson, Emily G.
Brookes, Victoria J.
Dürr, Salome
Ward, Michael P.
author_sort Hudson, Emily G.
collection PubMed
description Australia is currently canine rabies free. However, communities located on the northern coastline–such as the Northern Peninsula Area (NPA), Queensland–are at risk of an incursion due to their large populations of susceptible free-roaming dogs and proximity to rabies-infected Indonesian islands. A rabies-spread model was used to simulate potential outbreaks and evaluate various disease control strategies. A heterogeneous contact structure previously described in the population of interest–explorer dogs, roamer dogs and stay-at-home dogs–was incorporated into the model using six spatial kernels describing contacts between dog roaming categories. Twenty-seven vaccination strategies were investigated based on a complete block design of 50%, 70% and 90% coverage for each of the three roaming categories to simulate various targeted vaccination strategies. The 27 strategies were implemented in four population structures in which the proportion of dogs in each category varied–explorer dominant, roamer dominant, stay-at-home dominant and a field population (based on field estimates of population structure). The overall vaccination coverage varied depending on the subpopulation targeted for vaccination and the population structure modelled. A total of 108 scenarios were simulated 2000 times and the model outputs (outbreak size and duration) were compared to Strategy 14 (a standard recommended overall 70% vaccination coverage). In general, targeting explorer dogs–and to a lesser extent roamer dogs–produced similar outbreaks to Strategy 14 but with a lower overall vaccination coverage. Similarly, strategies that targeted stay-at-home dogs required a higher vaccination coverage to produce significantly smaller and shorter outbreaks. This study provides some theoretical evidence that targeting subpopulations of dogs for vaccination based on their roaming behaviours (and therefore risk of rabies transmission) could be more efficient than blanket 70% vaccination campaigns. Such information can be used in preparedness planning to help improve control of a potential rabies incursion in Australia.
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spelling pubmed-66389702019-07-25 Modelling targeted rabies vaccination strategies for a domestic dog population with heterogeneous roaming patterns Hudson, Emily G. Brookes, Victoria J. Dürr, Salome Ward, Michael P. PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article Australia is currently canine rabies free. However, communities located on the northern coastline–such as the Northern Peninsula Area (NPA), Queensland–are at risk of an incursion due to their large populations of susceptible free-roaming dogs and proximity to rabies-infected Indonesian islands. A rabies-spread model was used to simulate potential outbreaks and evaluate various disease control strategies. A heterogeneous contact structure previously described in the population of interest–explorer dogs, roamer dogs and stay-at-home dogs–was incorporated into the model using six spatial kernels describing contacts between dog roaming categories. Twenty-seven vaccination strategies were investigated based on a complete block design of 50%, 70% and 90% coverage for each of the three roaming categories to simulate various targeted vaccination strategies. The 27 strategies were implemented in four population structures in which the proportion of dogs in each category varied–explorer dominant, roamer dominant, stay-at-home dominant and a field population (based on field estimates of population structure). The overall vaccination coverage varied depending on the subpopulation targeted for vaccination and the population structure modelled. A total of 108 scenarios were simulated 2000 times and the model outputs (outbreak size and duration) were compared to Strategy 14 (a standard recommended overall 70% vaccination coverage). In general, targeting explorer dogs–and to a lesser extent roamer dogs–produced similar outbreaks to Strategy 14 but with a lower overall vaccination coverage. Similarly, strategies that targeted stay-at-home dogs required a higher vaccination coverage to produce significantly smaller and shorter outbreaks. This study provides some theoretical evidence that targeting subpopulations of dogs for vaccination based on their roaming behaviours (and therefore risk of rabies transmission) could be more efficient than blanket 70% vaccination campaigns. Such information can be used in preparedness planning to help improve control of a potential rabies incursion in Australia. Public Library of Science 2019-07-08 /pmc/articles/PMC6638970/ /pubmed/31283780 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007582 Text en © 2019 Hudson et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Hudson, Emily G.
Brookes, Victoria J.
Dürr, Salome
Ward, Michael P.
Modelling targeted rabies vaccination strategies for a domestic dog population with heterogeneous roaming patterns
title Modelling targeted rabies vaccination strategies for a domestic dog population with heterogeneous roaming patterns
title_full Modelling targeted rabies vaccination strategies for a domestic dog population with heterogeneous roaming patterns
title_fullStr Modelling targeted rabies vaccination strategies for a domestic dog population with heterogeneous roaming patterns
title_full_unstemmed Modelling targeted rabies vaccination strategies for a domestic dog population with heterogeneous roaming patterns
title_short Modelling targeted rabies vaccination strategies for a domestic dog population with heterogeneous roaming patterns
title_sort modelling targeted rabies vaccination strategies for a domestic dog population with heterogeneous roaming patterns
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6638970/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31283780
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007582
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