Análisis de los determinantes próximos e impacto de la ocupación en la fertilidad de mujeres peruanas

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the predictive capacity of proximate determinants and type of employment with respect to reduced fertility in Peruvian women of childbearing age. METHODS: Secondary analysis of Peru’s Demographic and Family Health Survey (ENDES) for 2014. The sample consisted of 20 396 women aged 15 to 49 years who had been sexually active during the four-week period immediately before the interview. The dependent variable was the total number of live births, and the main independent variables were type of employment, ideal number of offspring, highest educational level attained, and wealth quintile. Odds ratios (OR) were used to estimate the strength of the associations between proximate determinants and type of employment on the one hand and fertility on the other in logistic regression models. The goodness of fit of the models was estimated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and its discriminatory capacity, based on receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: Desired fertility (2.5 children per woman) was higher than actual fertility (2.1). The factors most strongly associated with reduced fertility were higher educational attainment (OR = 0.03; 95% CI: 0.02-0.04); ideal number of offspring between 0 and 2 (OR = 0.13; 95% CI: 0.11-0.15); and dependent employment (OR = 0.31; 95% CI: 0.28-0.34). The models’ areas under the curve were 0.908 (95% CI: 0.898-0.917) and 0.91 (95% CI: 0.891-0.928), respectively. CONCLUSION: Older age at first sexual intercourse and older age when first married (direct determinants) delay childbearing, whereas higher educational level and belonging to the highest wealth quintile (indirect determinants) indicate greater economic autonomy, which, in turn, is associated with low fertility. Similarly, the more dependent the work, the lower the fertility of the women surveyed.