Food patterns in relation to weight change and incidence of type 2 diabetes, coronary events and stroke in the Malmö Diet and Cancer cohort

PURPOSE: We examined if data-driven food-patterns associate with weight change, incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D), coronary events (CE) and stroke. METHODS: The study included 20,487 individuals (61% women) from the Malmö Diet and Cancer cohort, 45–74 years, without diabetes and CVD at baseline (1991–1996) and who did not report dietary changes. Diet was measured with a modified diet history method. During 15 years follow-up, 2206 T2D, 1571 CE and 1332 stroke cases were identified. Data on weight change after 16.7 years were available in 2627 individuals. RESULTS: From principal component analysis, we identified six food-patterns which were similar in women and men. The first pattern, explaining 7% of the variance, was characterized by high intake of fibre-rich bread, breakfast cereals, fruits, vegetables, fish and low-fat yoghurt, and by low intake of low-fibre bread. This health conscious pattern was associated with lower T2D risk (HR comparing highest quintile with lowest: 0.75; 95% CI 0.61–0.92, 0.82; 95% CI 0.68–1.00 in women and men, respectively, P trends = 0.003, 0.01) and CE (HR 0.77; 95% CI 0.58–1.02, HR 0.83; 95% CI 0.68–1.01, P trends = 0.05, 0.07), and in men also with lower risk of ischemic stroke (HR 0.69; 95% CI 0.54–0.88; P trend = 0.001) and less pronounced weight gain (0.93 kg/10 years, P trend = 0.03). A low-fat product pattern was associated with increased T2D risk in gender combined analyses (P trend = 0.03) and a pattern characterized by dressing and vegetables with lower CE risk in men (P trend = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Our main finding was that a dietary pattern indicating health conscious food choices was associated with lower risk of cardiometabolic diseases in both genders. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s00394-018-1727-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.