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Potential occurrence of Zika from subtropical to temperate Argentina considering the basic reproduction number (R(0))
OBJECTIVE. To assess the potential occurrence of Zika transmission throughout Argentina by the mosquito Aedes aegypti considering the basic reproduction number (R(0)). METHODS. A model originally developed for dengue was adapted for Zika. R(0) was estimatedas a function of seven parameters, three of...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Organización Panamericana de la Salud
2017
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6650626/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29466517 http://dx.doi.org/10.26633/RPSP.2017.120 |
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author | Orellano, Pablo Vezzani, Darío Quaranta, Nancy Cionco, Rodolfo Reynoso, Julieta Salomon, Oscar |
author_facet | Orellano, Pablo Vezzani, Darío Quaranta, Nancy Cionco, Rodolfo Reynoso, Julieta Salomon, Oscar |
author_sort | Orellano, Pablo |
collection | PubMed |
description | OBJECTIVE. To assess the potential occurrence of Zika transmission throughout Argentina by the mosquito Aedes aegypti considering the basic reproduction number (R(0)). METHODS. A model originally developed for dengue was adapted for Zika. R(0) was estimatedas a function of seven parameters, three of them were considered temperature-dependent. Seasonal Zika occurrence was evaluated in 9 locations representing different climatic suitability for the vector. Data of diary temperatures were extracted and included in the model. A threshold of R(0) = 1 was fixed for Zika occurrence. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the uncertainty around the results. RESULTS. Zika transmission has the potential to occur in all studied locations at least in some moment of the year. In the northern region, transmission might be possible throughout the whole year or with an interruption in winter. The maximum R(0) was estimated in 6.9, which means an average of 7 secondary cases from a primary case. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that during winter the transmission can only be excluded in the southern fringe of geographic distribution of the vector and in part of central Argentina. CONCLUSION. Zika virus has the potential to be transmitted in Argentina throughout the current geographic range of the mosquito vector. Although the transmission would be mainly seasonal, the possibility of winter transmission cannot be excluded in northern and central Argentina, meaning that there is a potential endemic maintenance of the disease. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6650626 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2017 |
publisher | Organización Panamericana de la Salud |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-66506262019-08-05 Potential occurrence of Zika from subtropical to temperate Argentina considering the basic reproduction number (R(0)) Orellano, Pablo Vezzani, Darío Quaranta, Nancy Cionco, Rodolfo Reynoso, Julieta Salomon, Oscar Rev Panam Salud Publica Original Research OBJECTIVE. To assess the potential occurrence of Zika transmission throughout Argentina by the mosquito Aedes aegypti considering the basic reproduction number (R(0)). METHODS. A model originally developed for dengue was adapted for Zika. R(0) was estimatedas a function of seven parameters, three of them were considered temperature-dependent. Seasonal Zika occurrence was evaluated in 9 locations representing different climatic suitability for the vector. Data of diary temperatures were extracted and included in the model. A threshold of R(0) = 1 was fixed for Zika occurrence. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the uncertainty around the results. RESULTS. Zika transmission has the potential to occur in all studied locations at least in some moment of the year. In the northern region, transmission might be possible throughout the whole year or with an interruption in winter. The maximum R(0) was estimated in 6.9, which means an average of 7 secondary cases from a primary case. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that during winter the transmission can only be excluded in the southern fringe of geographic distribution of the vector and in part of central Argentina. CONCLUSION. Zika virus has the potential to be transmitted in Argentina throughout the current geographic range of the mosquito vector. Although the transmission would be mainly seasonal, the possibility of winter transmission cannot be excluded in northern and central Argentina, meaning that there is a potential endemic maintenance of the disease. Organización Panamericana de la Salud 2017-09-29 /pmc/articles/PMC6650626/ /pubmed/29466517 http://dx.doi.org/10.26633/RPSP.2017.120 Text en https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 IGO License, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. No modifications or commercial use of this article are permitted. In any reproduction of this article there should not be any suggestion that PAHO or this article endorse any specific organization or products. The use of the PAHO logo is not permitted. This notice should be preserved along with the article’s original URL. |
spellingShingle | Original Research Orellano, Pablo Vezzani, Darío Quaranta, Nancy Cionco, Rodolfo Reynoso, Julieta Salomon, Oscar Potential occurrence of Zika from subtropical to temperate Argentina considering the basic reproduction number (R(0)) |
title | Potential occurrence of Zika from subtropical to temperate Argentina considering the basic reproduction number (R(0)) |
title_full | Potential occurrence of Zika from subtropical to temperate Argentina considering the basic reproduction number (R(0)) |
title_fullStr | Potential occurrence of Zika from subtropical to temperate Argentina considering the basic reproduction number (R(0)) |
title_full_unstemmed | Potential occurrence of Zika from subtropical to temperate Argentina considering the basic reproduction number (R(0)) |
title_short | Potential occurrence of Zika from subtropical to temperate Argentina considering the basic reproduction number (R(0)) |
title_sort | potential occurrence of zika from subtropical to temperate argentina considering the basic reproduction number (r(0)) |
topic | Original Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6650626/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29466517 http://dx.doi.org/10.26633/RPSP.2017.120 |
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