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Indirect Economic Impact Incurred by Haze Pollution: An Econometric and Input–Output Joint Model

Econometrics and input–output models have been presented to construct a joint model (i.e., an EC + IO model) in the paper, which is characterized by incorporating the uncertainty of the real economy with the detailed departmental classification structure, as well as adding recovery period variables...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Chen, Jibo, Chen, Keyao, Wang, Guizhi, Chen, Rongrong, Liu, Xiaodong, Wei, Guo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6650938/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31266268
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16132328
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author Chen, Jibo
Chen, Keyao
Wang, Guizhi
Chen, Rongrong
Liu, Xiaodong
Wei, Guo
author_facet Chen, Jibo
Chen, Keyao
Wang, Guizhi
Chen, Rongrong
Liu, Xiaodong
Wei, Guo
author_sort Chen, Jibo
collection PubMed
description Econometrics and input–output models have been presented to construct a joint model (i.e., an EC + IO model) in the paper, which is characterized by incorporating the uncertainty of the real economy with the detailed departmental classification structure, as well as adding recovery period variables in the joint model to make the model dynamic. By designing and implementing a static model, it is estimated that the indirect economic loss for the transportation sector caused by representative haze pollution of Beijing in 2013 was 23.7 million yuan. The industrial-related indirect losses due to the direct economic losses incurred by haze pollution reached 102 million yuan. With the constructed dynamic model, the cumulative economic losses for the industrial sectors have been calculated for the recovery periods of different durations. The results show that: (1) the longer the period that an industrial department returns to normal output after haze pollution has impacted, the greater the cumulative economic loss will be; (2) when the recovery period is one year, the cumulative economic loss value computed by the dynamic EC + IO model is much smaller than the loss value obtained by the static EC + IO model; (3) the recovery curves of industrial sectors show that the recovery rate at the early stage is fast, while it is slow afterwards. Therefore, the governance work after the occurrence of haze pollution should be launched as soon as possible. This study provides a theoretical basis for evaluating the indirect economic losses of haze pollution and demonstrates the value of popularization and application.
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spelling pubmed-66509382019-08-07 Indirect Economic Impact Incurred by Haze Pollution: An Econometric and Input–Output Joint Model Chen, Jibo Chen, Keyao Wang, Guizhi Chen, Rongrong Liu, Xiaodong Wei, Guo Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Econometrics and input–output models have been presented to construct a joint model (i.e., an EC + IO model) in the paper, which is characterized by incorporating the uncertainty of the real economy with the detailed departmental classification structure, as well as adding recovery period variables in the joint model to make the model dynamic. By designing and implementing a static model, it is estimated that the indirect economic loss for the transportation sector caused by representative haze pollution of Beijing in 2013 was 23.7 million yuan. The industrial-related indirect losses due to the direct economic losses incurred by haze pollution reached 102 million yuan. With the constructed dynamic model, the cumulative economic losses for the industrial sectors have been calculated for the recovery periods of different durations. The results show that: (1) the longer the period that an industrial department returns to normal output after haze pollution has impacted, the greater the cumulative economic loss will be; (2) when the recovery period is one year, the cumulative economic loss value computed by the dynamic EC + IO model is much smaller than the loss value obtained by the static EC + IO model; (3) the recovery curves of industrial sectors show that the recovery rate at the early stage is fast, while it is slow afterwards. Therefore, the governance work after the occurrence of haze pollution should be launched as soon as possible. This study provides a theoretical basis for evaluating the indirect economic losses of haze pollution and demonstrates the value of popularization and application. MDPI 2019-07-01 2019-07 /pmc/articles/PMC6650938/ /pubmed/31266268 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16132328 Text en © 2019 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Chen, Jibo
Chen, Keyao
Wang, Guizhi
Chen, Rongrong
Liu, Xiaodong
Wei, Guo
Indirect Economic Impact Incurred by Haze Pollution: An Econometric and Input–Output Joint Model
title Indirect Economic Impact Incurred by Haze Pollution: An Econometric and Input–Output Joint Model
title_full Indirect Economic Impact Incurred by Haze Pollution: An Econometric and Input–Output Joint Model
title_fullStr Indirect Economic Impact Incurred by Haze Pollution: An Econometric and Input–Output Joint Model
title_full_unstemmed Indirect Economic Impact Incurred by Haze Pollution: An Econometric and Input–Output Joint Model
title_short Indirect Economic Impact Incurred by Haze Pollution: An Econometric and Input–Output Joint Model
title_sort indirect economic impact incurred by haze pollution: an econometric and input–output joint model
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6650938/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31266268
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16132328
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