Overall survival in patients over 40 years old with surgically resected pancreatic carcinoma: a SEER-based nomogram analysis

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to identify the determinants of overall survival (OS) within patients over 40 years old with surgically resected pancreatic carcinoma (PC), and to develop a nomogram with the intention of OS predicting. METHODS: A total of 6341 patients of 40 years of age or later with surgically resected PC between 2010 and 2015 were enrolled from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program and randomly assigned into training set (4242 cases) and validation set (2099 cases). A nomogram was constructed for predicting 1-, 2- and 3-years OS based on univairate and multivariate Cox regression. The C-index and calibration plot were adopted to assess the nomogram performance. RESULTS: Our analysis showed that age, location of carcinoma in pancreas, tumor grade, TNM stage, size of carcinoma together with lymph node ratio (LNR) were considered to be independent overall survival predictors. A nomogram based on these six factors was developed with C-index being 0.680 (95%CI: 0.667–0.693). All calibration curves of OS fitted well. The OS curves stratified by nomogram-predicted probability score (≥20, 10–19 and < 10) demonstrated statistically significant difference not only within training set but also in validation set. CONCLUSIONS: The present nomogram for OS predicting can serve as the efficacious survival-predicting model and assist in accurate decision-making for patients over 40 years old with surgically resected PC.