Development and validation of a model to determine risk of refractory benign esophageal strictures

BACKGROUND: Current research has identified several risk factors for refractory benign esophageal strictures (RBES), but research is scarce on the prediction of RBES in benign esophageal strictures patients. Meanwhile, the long-term outcomes of RBES remain unclear. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a model to determine the progression of RBES in patients with benign esophageal strictures. And we also explored the long-term outcomes and safety in patients with RBES. AIM: To develop and validate a model to determine the progression of RBES in patients with benign esophageal strictures, based on the demographic data and endoscopic findings. METHODS: A total of 507 benign esophageal stricture patients treated by dilation alone or in combination with stenting were retrospectively enrolled between January 2009 and February 2018. The primary outcome was to establish a risk-scoring model predicting RBES in benign esophageal strictures. The secondary outcome was to explore the clinical effectiveness and adverse events in patients with RBES. RESULTS: In the study, age, etiology, and number and length of strictures were the independent risk factors for the refractory performance of benign esophageal strictures. According to risk factors of benign esophageal strictures, a risk-scoring model for predicting RBES in benign esophageal strictures was established: The risk score ranged from 0 to 8 points, and the risk scores were divided into low risk (0-2 points), intermediate risk (3-5 points), and high risk (6-8 points). The proportions of RBES in the corresponding risk categories were 1.0%, 12.2%, and 76.0%, respectively. Among 507 patients, 57 had RBES (39 males; median age, 60 years). The success rate of dilation treatment (51.2%, 21/41) was higher than that of stent placement (37.5%, 6/16). CONCLUSION: In this study, 11.3% (57/507) patients had RBES at our hospital. The risk-scoring model predicting RBES in benign esophageal strictures could predict the long-term outcome of patients with strictures ahead.