Prognostic Performance of Kidney Volume Measurement for Polycystic Kidney Disease: A Comparative Study of Ellipsoid vs. Manual Segmentation

Total kidney volume (TKV) is a validated prognostic biomarker for risk assessment in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD). TKV by manual segmentation (MS) is the “gold standard” but is time-consuming and requires expertise. The purpose of this study was to compare TKV-based prognostic performance by ellipsoid (EL) vs. MS in a large cohort of patients. Cross-sectional study of 308 patients seen at a tertiary referral center; all had a standardized MRI with typical imaging of ADPKD. An experienced radiologist blinded to patient clinical results performed all TKV measurements by EL and MS. We assessed the agreement of TKV measurements by intraclass correlation(ICC) and Bland-Altman plot and also how the disagreement of the two methods impact the prognostic performance of the Mayo Clinic Imaging Classification (MCIC). We found a high ICC of TKV measurements (0.991, p < 0.001) between EL vs. MS; however, 5.5% of the cases displayed disagreement of TKV measurements >20%. We also found a high degree of agreement of the individual MCIC risk classes (i.e. 1A to 1E) with a Cohen’s weighted-kappa of 0.89; but 42 cases (13.6%) were misclassified by EL with no misclassification spanning more than one risk class. The sensitivity and specificity of EL in distinguishing low-risk (1A-B) from high-risk (1C-E) MCIC prognostic grouping were 96.6% and 96.1%, respectively. Overall, we found an excellent agreement of TKV-based risk assessment between EL and MS. However, caution is warranted for patients with MCIC 1B and 1C, as misclassification can have therapeutic consequence.