Prognostic factors and survival according to tumor subtype in newly diagnosed breast cancer with liver metastases: A competing risk analysis

Population-based study for predicting the prognosis for breast cancer liver metastasis (BCLM) is lacking at present. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate newly diagnosed BCLM patients of different tumor subtypes and assess potential prognostic factors for predicting the survival for BCLM patients. Specifically, data were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results program from 2010 to 2014, and were assessed, including the data of patients with BCLM. Differences in the overall survival (OS) among patients was compared via Kaplan-Meier analysis. Other prognostic factors of OS were determined using the Cox proportional hazard model. In addition, the breast cancer-specific mortality was assessed using the Fine and Gray's competing risk model. A nomogram was also constructed on the basis of the Cox model for predicting the prognosis of BCLM cases. A total of 2,098 cases that had a median OS of 20.0 months were included. The distribution of tumor subtypes was as follows: 42.2% with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (Her2; -)/hormone receptor (HR; +), 12.8% with Her2(+)/HR(−), 19.1% with Her2(+)/HR(+) and 13.5% with triple negative breast cancer (TNBC). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that older age (>64 years), unmarried status, larger tumor, higher grade, no surgery, metastases at other sites, and TNBC subtype were associated with shorter OS. Additionally, multivariate analysis revealed that older age (>64 years), unmarried status, no surgery, bone metastasis, brain metastasis and TNBC subtype were significantly associated with worse prognosis. Thus, age at diagnosis, marital status, surgery, bone metastasis, brain metastasis and tumor subtype were confirmed as independent prognosis factors from a competing risk model. We also constructed a nomogram, which had the concordance index of internal validation of 0.685 (0.650–0.720). This paper had carried out the population-based prognosis prediction for BCLM cases. The survival of BCLM differed depending on the tumor subtype. More independent prognosis factors were age at the time of diagnosis, surgery, marital status, bone metastasis, as well as brain metastasis, in addition to tumor subtype. Notably, the as-constructed nomogram might serve as an efficient approach to predict the prognosis for individual patients.