Emigration of regional quota graduates of Japanese medical schools to non-designated prefectures: a prospective nationwide cohort study

OBJECTIVES: This study examined the retention of regional quota graduates of Japanese medical schools and prefecture scholarship recipients within their designated prefectures where they are obliged or expected to work and revealed the personal and regional characteristics associated with their emigration to non-designated prefectures. Regional quota and prefecture scholarship are two of the most ambitious policies ever conducted in Japan for recruiting physicians to practice in rural areas. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Nationwide. PARTICIPANTS: Regional quota graduates with prefecture scholarship, quota graduates without scholarship and non-quota graduates with scholarship of Japanese medical schools who obtained their physician license between 2014 and 2016. PRIMARY OUTCOME: The emigration in 2016 of the participants from the designated prefectures. RESULTS: Total participants were 991 physicians, three of whom were excluded due to the missing values of crucial items, leaving 988 participants for analysis (quota with scholarship 387, quota alone 358 and scholarship alone 243). The percentage of those who emigrated was 11.9% (118/988). The mean (±SD) proportion of subjects who emigrated was 11.7% (±10.3) among all prefectures and the proportion varies widely among prefectures (0%–44.4%). Multilevel logistic regression analysis showed those who received prefecture scholarship (OR 0.23; 95% CI 0.08 to 0.67) and whose designated prefecture has an ordinance-designated city (ie, large city) were less likely to emigrate (OR 0.47; 95% CI 0.24 to 0.90). In contrast, graduates from a medical school outside the designated prefecture (OR 4.20; 95% CI 2.20 to 7.67) and who have a right to postpone their obligatory service (OR 3.42; 95% CI 1.52 to 7.67) were more likely to emigrate. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of regional quota graduates and prefecture scholarship recipients emigrated to non-designated prefectures. Emigrations should be reduced by improving the potential facilitators for emigration such as discordance in location between medical school and designated prefecture.