Trajectories of body mass index, from adolescence to older adulthood, and pancreatic cancer risk; a population-based case–control study in Ontario, Canada

PURPOSE: Pancreatic cancer has the highest fatality rate of all cancers. Adulthood obesity is an established risk factor for pancreatic cancer; however, life-course obesity is not well understood. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between body mass index (BMI) trajectories throughout the life-course and pancreatic cancer risk. METHODS: A population-based case–control study was conducted (2011–2013) in Ontario, Canada. Cases were recruited from the Ontario pancreas cancer study (n = 310) and controls from the Ontario cancer risk factor study (n = 1258). Questionnaires captured self-reported height and weight at four timepoints (adolescence, 20 s, 30–40 s, 50–60 s). BMI trajectories were identified using latent class growth mixture modeling. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated from multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Five BMI trajectories were identified: stable-normal weight (38.9%), progressively overweight (42.2%), persistent overweight (12.6%), progressive obesity (4.2%), and persistent obesity (2.1%). The persistent overweight (OR = 1.55; 95% CI 1.02, 2.39) and progressive obesity trajectories (OR = 1.49; 95% CI 0.77, 2.87) compared to stable-normal weight were associated with increased odds of pancreatic cancer. When BMI was evaluated separately the strongest associations with pancreatic cancer emerged in young and mid-adulthood. CONCLUSION: BMI trajectories characterized by overweight in early adulthood were associated with increased pancreatic cancer risk suggesting a life-course approach to disease risk. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s10552-019-01197-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.