A 12-year trend analysis of the incidence of gastrointestinal cancers in East Azerbaijan: last updated results of an ongoing population-based cancer registry

BACKGROUND: The most recent results of Global Cancer Statistics indicated that gastrointestinal cancers, including gastric, colorectal, esophageal, and liver cancers, are among the most commonly diagnosed cancers worldwide. Previous reports from cancer registries in East Azerbaijan have shown that there is a high incidence of gastrointestinal cancer in this region, so we performed a trend analysis to determine the pattern of change over the last decade. METHODS: In total, 12 years of cancer registry data were collected from different sources in East Azerbaijan, and a data quality check was performed to ensure clean data. Using the 2000 World Health Organization standard population, we then generated age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) for different cancers, and for each year from 1383 to 1394 of the Persian calendar (i.e., 19 March 2004 to 20 March 2015). Annual percent changes (APCs) and Average annual percent changes (AAPCs) in the ASRs for esophageal, gastric, small intestine, colorectal, anal, liver, gallbladder, and pancreatic cancers were calculated using Joinpoint Software (Version 4.5.0.1, June 2017). RESULTS: An increase in most types of cancer was observed during the study period. The ASR for colorectal cancer increased from 2.9 to 13.6 per 100,000 women (APC, 9.7%) and from 2.2 to 17.8 per 100,000 men (APC, 10.2%). The ASR for gastric cancer showed a slight increasing trend from 10.5 to 13.5 per 100,000 women (APC, 1.3%) and from 3.1 to 29.9 per 100,000 men (APC, 3.2%). However, trend analysis showed a decreasing pattern for the ASR of esophageal cancer in both genders (APC,− 3%), with APCs of − 1.1% in females and − 0.4% in males. CONCLUSIONS: The latest results of the East Azerbaijan Population-Based Cancer Registry indicate that gastrointestinal cancers remain common, with significant increasing trends in their ASRs. Improved screening and early detection are needed in this region.