Dynamic model with factors of polycystic ovarian syndrome in infertile women

BACKGROUND: Previous studies present various methods for prediction disease based on statistics or neural networks.These models use statistics and results from past procedures to provide prediction through probability analysis. OBJECTIVE: In this article, the authors present a dynamic model aiming at predicting the treatment result of infertile women with the factor of polycystic ovary syndrome. MATERIALS AND METHODS: For this purpose, the authors have divided the study population into five groups: women prone to infertility, PCOS women, infertile women undergoing the treatment with Clomiphene Citrate and Gonadotropin, infertile women under IVF treatment, and improved infertile women. Therefore, the authors modeled the disease in infertile women mathematically and indicated that the free equilibrium point was asymptotically stable. Also the possibility of other equilibrium point of the system has been studied. RESULTS: The authors showed that this equilibrium point was marginally stable. Using Stoke's Theorem, the authors proved that the recurrence of the disease cycle with the factor of polycystic ovary syndrome was not intermittent in infertile women. They solved this model numerically using Rung-Kutta method and sketched the figures of the resulted solutions. CONCLUSION: It shows that with increasing age, the ovarian reserve is decreased and the treatment Clomiphene Citrate and Gonadotropin are not responsive, so IVF treatment is recommended in this group of patients considering the graphs of the model.