Use of estimated glomerular filtration rate to predict incident chronic kidney disease in patients at risk of cardiovascular disease: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND: Patients with cardiovascular disease are at an increased risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, data on incident CKD in patients with multiple vascular comorbidities are insufficient. In this study, we identified the predictors of CKD stages 3–5 in patients at risk of cardiovascular disease and used their estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) to construct a nomogram to predict the 5-year risk of incident CKD. METHODS: Ambulatory data on 622 adults with preserved kidney function and one or more cardiovascular disease risk factors who attended outpatient clinics at a tertiary care hospital in Al-Ain, United Arab Emirates were obtained retrospectively. eGFR was calculated using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation and assessed every 3 months from baseline to December 12, 2017. Fine and Gray competing risk regression model was used to identify the independent variables and construct a nomogram to predict incident CKD at 5 years, which is defined as eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) for ≥3 months. Time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the discrimination ability of the model. Calibration curves were applied to determine the calibration ability and adjusted for the competing risk of death. Internal validation of predictive accuracy was performed using K-fold cross-validation. RESULTS: Of the 622 patients, 71 had newly developed CKD stages 3–5 over a median follow-up of 96 months (interquartile range, 86–103 months). Baseline eGFR, hemoglobin A1c, total cholesterol, and history of diabetes mellitus were identified as significant predictors of CKD stages 3–5. The nomogram had good discrimination in predicting the disease stages, with a time-dependent AUC of 0.918 (95% confidence interval, 0.846–0.964) at 5 years, after internal validation by cross-validation. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that incident CKD could be predicted with a simple and practical nomogram in patients at risk of cardiovascular disease and with preserved kidney function, which in turn could help clinicians make more informed decisions for CKD management in these patients. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12882-019-1494-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.