Compression of frailty in adults living with HIV

BACKGROUND: Contemporary HIV care may reduce frailty in older adults living with HIV (OALWH). Objective of the study was to estimate prevalence of frailty at the age of 50 and 75 years, and build a model to quantify the burden of frailty in the year 2030. METHODS: This study included OALWH attending Modena HIV Metabolic Clinic between 2009 and 2015. Patients are referred from more than 120 HIV clinics well distributed across Italy, therefore being country representative. Our model forecasts the new entries on yearly basis up to 2030. Changes in frailty over a one-year period using a 37-variable frailty index (FI) and death rates were modelled using a validated mathematical algorithm with parameters adjusted to best represent the changes observed at the clinic. In this study, we assessed the number of frailest individuals (defined with a FI > 0.4) at the age of 50 and at the age 75 by calendar year. RESULTS: In the period 2015–2030 we model that frailest OALWH at age 50 will decrease from 26 to 7%, and at the age of 75 years will increase from 43 to 52%. This implies a shift of the frailty prevalence at an older age. CONCLUSION: We have presented projections of how the burden of frailty in older adults, living with HIV will change. We project fewer people aged 50+ with severe frailty, most of whom will be older than now. These results suggest a compression of age-related frailty. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12877-019-1247-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.