A new sensitive and accurate model to predict moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea in patients with obesity

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) has a high prevalence in patients with obesity. Only patients with clinical symptoms of OSA are admitted to polysomnography; however, many patients with OSA are asymptomatic. We aimed to create and validate a population-based risk score that predicts the severity of OSA in patients with obesity. We here report the cross-sectional analysis at baseline of an ongoing study investigating the long-term effect of bariatric surgery on OSA. One-hundred sixty-one patients of the Obesity Center of the Catholic University Hospital in Rome, Italy were included in the study. The patients underwent overnight cardiorespiratory monitoring, blood chemistry analyses, hepatic ultrasound, and anthropometric measurements. The patients were divided into 2 groups according OSA severity assessed by the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI): AHI < 15 = no or mild and AHI ≥ 15 moderate to severe OSA. A statistical prediction model was created and validated. C statistics was used to evaluate the discrimination performance of the model. The prevalence of OSA was 96.3% with 74.5% of the subjects having moderate/severe OSA. Sex, body mass index, diabetes, and age were included in the final prediction model that had excellent discrimination ability (C statistics equals to 83%). An OSA risk chart score for clinical use was created. Patients with severe obesity are at a very high risk for moderate or severe OSA in particular if they are men, older, more obese, and/or with type 2 diabetes. The OSA risk chart can be useful for general practitioners and patients as well as for bariatric surgeons to select patients with high risk of moderate to severe OSA for further polysomnography.