Summer high temperature extremes over Northeastern China predicted by spring soil moisture

Current seasonal climate predictions mainly reside in the ocean anomalies. However, the prediction skills are generally limited over many extra-tropical land areas where the oceanic effects are relatively weak. In this study, we address the potential of preceding spring soil moisture condition to predict summer hot days over Northeastern China, a typical Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude region. The results show that spring soil moisture condition over Central-Eastern China is closely related with following summer hot days over Northeastern China for the period of 1979–2017. The statistical model based on the preceding spring soil moisture condition yields temporal cross-validated correlation skill of 0.57 for summer hot days over Northeastern China. The spatial pattern correlation skills of independent hindcast experiments for 2009–2017 are also high, ranging from 0.87 to 0.94. Our results can be easily applied to practical prediction of summer hot days over Northeastern China, and help to provide better climate services and reduce the detrimental effects of extreme heat over this extra-tropical region.