Pulmonary vein parameters are similar or better predictors than left atrial diameter for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation after cryoablation

Left atrial diameter (LAD) has been considered an independent risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF) relapse after pulmonary vein isolation (PVI). However, whether LAD or other factors are more predictive of late recurrence in patients with paroxysmal AF remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate the value of pulmonary vein (PV) parameters for predicting AF relapse 1 year after patients underwent cryoablation for paroxysmal AF. Ninety-seven patients with paroxysmal AF who underwent PVI successfully were included. PV parameters were measured through computed tomography scans prior to PVI. A total of 28 patients had recurrence of AF at one-year follow-up. The impact of several variables on recurrence was evaluated in multivariate analyses. LAD and the time from first diagnosis of AF to ablation maintained its significance in predicting the relapse of AF after relevant adjustments in multivariate analysis. When major diameter of right inferior pulmonary vein (RIPV) (net reclassification improvement (NRI) 0.179, CI=0.031–0.326, P<0.05) and cross-sectional area (CSA) of RIPV (NRI: 0.122, CI=0.004–0.240, P<0.05) entered the AF risk model separately, the added predictive capacity was large. The accuracy of the two parameters in predicting recurrence of AF were not inferior (AUC: 0.665 and 0.659, respectively) to echocardiographic LAD (AUC: 0.663). The inclusion of either RIPV major diameter or CSA of RIPV in the model increased the C-index (0.766 and 0.758, respectively). We concluded that major diameter of RIPV had predictive capacity similar to or even better than that of LAD for predicting AF relapse after cryoablation PVI.