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Risk Assessment in Urban Large-Scale Public Spaces Using Dempster-Shafer Theory: An Empirical Study in Ningbo, China

Urban Large-scale Public Spaces (ULPS) are important areas of urban culture and economic development, which are also places of the potential safety hazard. ULPS safety assessment has played a crucial role in the theory and practice of urban sustainable development. The primary objective of this stud...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Zhou, Jibiao, Mao, Xinhua, Wang, Yiting, Zhang, Minjie, Dong, Sheng
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6720811/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31426297
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16162942
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author Zhou, Jibiao
Mao, Xinhua
Wang, Yiting
Zhang, Minjie
Dong, Sheng
author_facet Zhou, Jibiao
Mao, Xinhua
Wang, Yiting
Zhang, Minjie
Dong, Sheng
author_sort Zhou, Jibiao
collection PubMed
description Urban Large-scale Public Spaces (ULPS) are important areas of urban culture and economic development, which are also places of the potential safety hazard. ULPS safety assessment has played a crucial role in the theory and practice of urban sustainable development. The primary objective of this study is to explore the interaction between ULPS safety risk and its influencing factors. In the first stage, an index sensitivity analysis method was applied to calculate and identify the safety risk assessment index system. Next, a Delphi method and information entropy method were also applied to collect and calculate the weight of risk assessment indicators. In the second stage, a Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) method with evidence fusion technique was utilized to analyze the interaction between the ULPS safety risk level and the multiple-index variables, measured by four observed performance indicators, i.e., environmental factor, human factor, equipment factor, and management factor. Finally, an empirical study of DST approach for ULPS safety performance analysis was presented.
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spelling pubmed-67208112019-09-10 Risk Assessment in Urban Large-Scale Public Spaces Using Dempster-Shafer Theory: An Empirical Study in Ningbo, China Zhou, Jibiao Mao, Xinhua Wang, Yiting Zhang, Minjie Dong, Sheng Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Urban Large-scale Public Spaces (ULPS) are important areas of urban culture and economic development, which are also places of the potential safety hazard. ULPS safety assessment has played a crucial role in the theory and practice of urban sustainable development. The primary objective of this study is to explore the interaction between ULPS safety risk and its influencing factors. In the first stage, an index sensitivity analysis method was applied to calculate and identify the safety risk assessment index system. Next, a Delphi method and information entropy method were also applied to collect and calculate the weight of risk assessment indicators. In the second stage, a Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) method with evidence fusion technique was utilized to analyze the interaction between the ULPS safety risk level and the multiple-index variables, measured by four observed performance indicators, i.e., environmental factor, human factor, equipment factor, and management factor. Finally, an empirical study of DST approach for ULPS safety performance analysis was presented. MDPI 2019-08-16 2019-08 /pmc/articles/PMC6720811/ /pubmed/31426297 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16162942 Text en © 2019 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Zhou, Jibiao
Mao, Xinhua
Wang, Yiting
Zhang, Minjie
Dong, Sheng
Risk Assessment in Urban Large-Scale Public Spaces Using Dempster-Shafer Theory: An Empirical Study in Ningbo, China
title Risk Assessment in Urban Large-Scale Public Spaces Using Dempster-Shafer Theory: An Empirical Study in Ningbo, China
title_full Risk Assessment in Urban Large-Scale Public Spaces Using Dempster-Shafer Theory: An Empirical Study in Ningbo, China
title_fullStr Risk Assessment in Urban Large-Scale Public Spaces Using Dempster-Shafer Theory: An Empirical Study in Ningbo, China
title_full_unstemmed Risk Assessment in Urban Large-Scale Public Spaces Using Dempster-Shafer Theory: An Empirical Study in Ningbo, China
title_short Risk Assessment in Urban Large-Scale Public Spaces Using Dempster-Shafer Theory: An Empirical Study in Ningbo, China
title_sort risk assessment in urban large-scale public spaces using dempster-shafer theory: an empirical study in ningbo, china
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6720811/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31426297
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16162942
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