Predictive value of genomic screening: cross-sectional study of cystic fibrosis in 50,788 electronic health records

Doubts have been raised about the value of DNA-based screening for low-prevalence monogenic conditions following reports of testing this approach using available electronic health record (EHR) as the sole phenotyping source. We hypothesized that a better model for EHR-focused examination of DNA-based screening is Cystic Fibrosis (CF) since the diagnosis is proactively sought within the healthcare system. We reviewed CFTR variants in 50,778 exomes. In 24 cases with bi-allelic pathogenic CFTR variants, there were 21 true-positives. We considered three cases “potential” false-positives due to limitations in available EHR phenotype data. This genomic screening exhibited a positive predictive value of 87.5%, negative predictive value of 99.9%, sensitivity of 95.5%, and a specificity of 99.9%. Despite EHR-based phenotyping limitations in three cases, the presence or absence of pathogenic CFTR variants has strong predictive value for CF diagnosis when EHR data is used as the sole phenotyping source. Accurate ascertainment of the predictive value of DNA-based screening requires condition-specific phenotyping beyond available EHR data.