Estimating the impact of a novel drug regimen for treatment of tuberculosis: a modeling analysis of projected patient outcomes and epidemiological considerations

BACKGROUND: Regimens that could treat both rifampin-resistant (RR) and rifampin-susceptible tuberculosis (TB) while shortening the treatment duration have reached late-stage clinical trials. Decisions about whether and how to implement such regimens will require an understanding of their likely clinical impact and how this impact depends on local epidemiology and implementation strategy. METHODS: A Markov state-transition model of 100,000 representative South African adults with TB was used to simulate implementation of the regimen BPaMZ (bedaquiline, pretomanid, moxifloxacin, and pyrazinamide), either for RR-TB only or universally for all patients. Patient outcomes, including cure rates, time with active TB, and time on treatment, were compared to outcomes under current care. Sensitivity analyses varied the drug-resistance epidemiology, rifampin susceptibility testing practices, and regimen efficacy. RESULTS: Using BPaMZ exclusively for RR-TB increased the proportion of all RR-TB that was cured by initial treatment from 60 ± 1% to 67 ± 1%. Expanding use of BPaMZ to all patients increased cure of RR-TB to 89 ± 1% and cure of all TB from 87.3 ± 0.1% to 89.5 ± 0.1%, while shortening treatment by 1.9 months/person. In sensitivity analyses, reducing the coverage of rifampin susceptibility testing resulted in lower projected proportions of patients cured under all regimen scenarios (current care, RR-only BPaMZ, and universal BPaMZ), compared to the proportions projected using South Africa’s high coverage; however, this reduced coverage resulted in greater expected incremental benefits of universal BPaMZ implementation, both when compared to RR-only BPaMZ implementation and when compared to to current care under the same low rifampin susceptibility testing coverage. In settings with higher RR-TB prevalence, the benefits of BPaMZ were magnified both for RR-specific and universal BPaMZ implementation. CONCLUSIONS: Novel regimens such as BPaMZ could improve RR-TB outcomes and shorten treatment for all patients, particularly with universal use. Decision-makers weighing early options for implementing such regimens at scale will want to consider the expected impact on patient outcomes and on the burden of treatment in their local context. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-4429-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.