Development and validation of a pre-scoring system for nonspecific low back pain among general population in Guangzhou: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: Nonspecific Low Back Pain (NLBP) is a common disease with a low cure rate and significant impact on the population. This study aimed to develop and validate a pre-scoring system for identifying the risk of suffering from NLBP among the general population in Guangzhou. METHODS: A total of 1439 eligible subjects were surveyed in Guangzhou by stratified random sampling and was divided randomly into the development dataset (69.6%) and validation dataset (30.4%) subsequently. Based on the development dataset, potential associated factors (average exercise times weekly, the intensity of daily work, etc.) with NLBP were tested by the sequential logistic regression, and a pre-scoring system was formulated with Sullivan’s method and graded afterward. The internal validity of the system was assessed by AUC and calibration plot, and the external validation was performed in the validation dataset. RESULTS: The prevalence rates of NLBP in the development dataset and the validation dataset were 12.97 and 13.27%, respectively. Age, BMI, average exercise times weekly, gender, educational level, the intensity of daily work, place of residence, monthly income, overall evaluation of health condition and physiology health were identified as significant factors. The total risk score ranged from 0 to 38, which was split into three risk grades: low risk (0 to 18), intermediate risk (19 to 22) and high risk (23 to 38). The pre-scoring system had an adequate calibration and a good discriminating ability with bootstrap-corrected AUC equaling 0.861 in the development dataset and 0.821 in the validation dataset. CONCLUSIONS: A pre-scoring system that could help clinicians to assess the risk of NLBP in the general population was validated. Further validation of the system in a new population or prospective cohort study is suggested. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-7564-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.