Self-Determined Motivation and Competitive Anxiety in Athletes/Students: A Probabilistic Study Using Bayesian Networks

This study attempts to analyze the relationship between two key psychological variables associated with performance in sports – Self-Determined Motivation and Competitive Anxiety – through Bayesian Networks (BN) analysis. We analyzed 674 university students that are athletes from 44 universities that competed at the University Games in Mexico, with an average age of 21 years (SD = 2.07) and with a mean of 8.61 years’ (SD = 5.15) experience in sports. Methods: Regarding the data analysis, firstly, classification using the CHAID algorithm was carried out to determine the dependence links between variables; Secondly, a BN was developed to reduce the uncertainty in the relationships between the two key psychological variables. The validation of the BN revealed AUC values ranging from 0.5 to 0.92. Subsequently, various instantiations were performed with hypothetical values applied to the “bottom” variables. Results showed two probability trees that have extrinsic motivation and amotivation at the top, while the anxiety/activation due to worries about performance was at the bottom of the probabilities. The instantiations carried out support the existence of these probabilistic relationships, demonstrating their scarce influence on anxiety about competition generated by the intrinsic motivation, and the complex probabilistic effect of introjected and identified regulation regarding the appearance of anxiety due to worry about performance.