Comparison of Life-Time Death Probability due to Malignant Tumors in Different Regions of China Based on Chinese Surveillance Sites

OBJECTIVE: To estimate and comparably analyze the life-time death probability (LDP) caused by malignant tumors in different regions in 2004 and 2014. METHODS: LDP was calculated by a probability additive formula and based on an abridged life table. Data on age-specific mortality was obtained from the National Cause-of- Death Surveillance Dataset in 2014 using surveillance sites in China and data on age-specific mortality was collected from the third retrospective investigation of death cause in China in 2004. RESULTS: LDP caused by malignant tumors, lung cancer, gastric cancer, liver cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal, and anal cancer were 19.2%, 5.6%, 2.8%, 2.8%, 1.7%, 1.3%, respectively. In addition, we calculated LDP caused by malignant tumors in three different regions of China. LDP caused by malignant tumors were 21.2%, 6.1%, 3.1%, 2.8%, 2.0%, and 1.5% in the eastern region, were 18.3%, 5.5%, 2.7%, 3.0%, 1.5%, and 1.1% in the central region, and were 16.7%, 4.6%, 2.3%, 2.8%, 1.6%, and 1.2% in the western region, respectively. Additionally, LDP caused by malignant tumors in 2004 and 2015 were compared. We found that LDPs caused by malignant tumors, lung cancer, and colorectal cancer have increased in the past decade, while LDPs caused by gastric cancer, liver cancer, and esophageal cancer have experienced a decreasing trend. CONCLUSIONS: Malignant tumors were still the main cause of death in one’s life time, giving rise to LDP. LDP caused by malignant tumours has two divisions. First, traditional upper digestive system cancers related to long-term chronic infection, such as esophageal cancer, gastric cancer, and liver cancer, which has shown a significant downward trend. Second, lung and colorectal cancers related to the environmental factors and lifestyle, which are on the rise.