Antimicrobial resistance surveillance and prediction of Gram-negative bacteria based on antimicrobial consumption in a hospital setting: A 15-year retrospective study

Antimicrobial resistance, a major threat to human health, is mainly driven by the overuse of antimicrobials. The purpose of this study was to further investigate the relationship between antimicrobial use and resistance with a 15-year record in Southwest hospital, one of the largest hospitals in Southwest China and a university affiliated hospital, thus to further predict the antimicrobial resistance in an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) manner. Kirby-Bauer tests were carried out to figure out the drug sensitivity of Gram-negative bacterial. Antimicrobials (β-lactamase inhibitor complex, aminoglycosides, quinolones, third and fourth-generation cephalosporins, carbapenems, cephamycins, oxacephems, and sulfonamides) consumption were calculated according to World Health Organization (WHO) anatomical therapeutic chemical classification index and expressed as annual defined daily dose (DDD) or DDD per 1000 out patients. Resistance rates of levofloxacin-resistant Escherichia coli, ceftazidime-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae, amikacin-resistant Bacterium levans, imipenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa is positively correlated with the usage of aminoglycosides and quinolones; resistance rates of imipenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumanii is positively correlated with the usage of carbapenemes (P-value between the drug resistance of levofloxacin-resistant E. coli, ceftazidime-resistant K. pneumoniae and the usage of aminoglycosides is under .05, the other P-value are under .01); resistance rates of the drug resistance of levofloxacin-resistant E. coli is positively correlated with the usage of oxacephems (P < .01); resistance rates of imipenem-resistant P. aeruginosa is positively correlated with the usage of oxacephems and sulfonamides (P < .01). The present study presents one of the largest and longest retrospective analyses in China between antimicrobial consumption and antimicrobial resistance. Change of the usage of several antibacterial drugs has great influence on the drug resistance of Gram-negative bacterial. Of particular, ARIMA forecasting revealed that carbapenem related bacterial resistance should be closely watched.