Association of Concurrent Changes in Metabolic Health and Weight on Cardiovascular Disease Risk: A Nationally Representative Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: The combined effect of transitions of metabolic health and weight on cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains unclear. We aimed to examine the association of concurrent changes of metabolic health and weight on CVD over time. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study population consisted of 205 394 from the Korean National Health Insurance Service. Metabolic health was determined by fasting serum glucose, total cholesterol, and blood pressure levels, while obesity was determined by body mass index. All participants were divided into either metabolically healthy nonobese (MHNO), metabolically healthy obese, metabolically unhealthy nonobese, or metabolically unhealthy obese for each of the first (2002–2003) and second (2004–2005) health screening periods, after which participants were followed‐up for CVD from 2006 to 2015. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to determine adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs. Among initial MHNO participants, those who became metabolically healthy obese (aHR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.10–1.41), metabolically unhealthy nonobese (aHR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.15–1.31), and metabolically unhealthy obese (aHR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.12–1.61) had elevated risk for CVD compared with those who remained MHNO. Conversely, improving metabolic health and obesity were associated with reduced CVD risk among initially metabolically unhealthy nonobese to secondary MHNO (aHR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.73–0.84), metabolically unhealthy obese to MHNO (aHR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.58–0.81), and metabolically unhealthy obese to metabolically healthy obese (aHR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.66–0.80) participants. CONCLUSIONS: Changes toward metabolically unhealthy or obese states resulted in increased CVD risk. Improving metabolic health along with reducing weight may lead to decreased risk of CVD.