Seasonal variation and etiologic inferences of childhood pneumonia and diarrhea mortality in India

Control of pneumonia and diarrhea mortality in India requires understanding of their etiologies. We combined time series analysis of seasonality, climate region, and clinical syndromes from 243,000 verbal autopsies in the nationally representative Million Death Study. Pneumonia mortality at 1 month-14 years was greatest in January (Rate ratio (RR) 1.66, 99% CI 1.51–1.82; versus the April minimum). Higher RRs at 1–11 months suggested respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) etiology. India’s humid subtropical region experienced a unique summer pneumonia mortality. Diarrhea mortality peaked in July (RR 1.66, 1.48–1.85) and January (RR 1.37, 1.23–1.48), while deaths with fever and bloody diarrhea (indicating enteroinvasive bacterial etiology) showed little seasonality. Combining mortality at ages 1–59 months with prevalence surveys, we estimate 40,600 pneumonia deaths from Streptococcus pneumoniae, 20,700 from RSV, 12,600 from influenza, and 7200 from Haemophilus influenzae type b and 24,700 diarrheal deaths from rotavirus occurred in 2015. Careful mortality studies can elucidate etiologies and inform vaccine introduction.