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Shift in Potential Malaria Transmission Areas in India, Using the Fuzzy-Based Climate Suitability Malaria Transmission (FCSMT) Model under Changing Climatic Conditions

The future implications of climate change on malaria transmission at the global level have already been reported, however such evidences are scarce and limited in India. Here our study aims to assess, identify and map the potential effects of climate change on Plasmodium vivax (Pv) and Plasmodium fa...

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Autores principales: Sarkar, Soma, Gangare, Vinay, Singh, Poonam, Dhiman, Ramesh C.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6766004/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31540493
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16183474
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author Sarkar, Soma
Gangare, Vinay
Singh, Poonam
Dhiman, Ramesh C.
author_facet Sarkar, Soma
Gangare, Vinay
Singh, Poonam
Dhiman, Ramesh C.
author_sort Sarkar, Soma
collection PubMed
description The future implications of climate change on malaria transmission at the global level have already been reported, however such evidences are scarce and limited in India. Here our study aims to assess, identify and map the potential effects of climate change on Plasmodium vivax (Pv) and Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) malaria transmission in India. A Fuzzy-based Climate Suitability Malaria Transmission (FCSMT) model under the GIS environment was generated using Temperature and Relative Humidity data, extracted from CORDEX South Asia for Baseline (1976–2005) and RCP 4.5 scenario for future projection by the 2030s (2021–2040). National malaria data were used at the model analysis stage. Model outcomes suggest that climate change may significantly increase the spatial spread of Pv and Pf malaria with a numerical increase in the transmission window’s (TW) months, and a shift in the months of transmission. Some areas of the western Himalayan states are likely to have new foci of Pv malaria transmission. Interior parts of some southern and eastern states are likely to become more suitable for Pf malaria transmission. Study has also identified the regions with a reduction in transmission months by the 2030s, leading to unstable malaria, and having the potential for malaria outbreaks.
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spelling pubmed-67660042019-09-30 Shift in Potential Malaria Transmission Areas in India, Using the Fuzzy-Based Climate Suitability Malaria Transmission (FCSMT) Model under Changing Climatic Conditions Sarkar, Soma Gangare, Vinay Singh, Poonam Dhiman, Ramesh C. Int J Environ Res Public Health Article The future implications of climate change on malaria transmission at the global level have already been reported, however such evidences are scarce and limited in India. Here our study aims to assess, identify and map the potential effects of climate change on Plasmodium vivax (Pv) and Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) malaria transmission in India. A Fuzzy-based Climate Suitability Malaria Transmission (FCSMT) model under the GIS environment was generated using Temperature and Relative Humidity data, extracted from CORDEX South Asia for Baseline (1976–2005) and RCP 4.5 scenario for future projection by the 2030s (2021–2040). National malaria data were used at the model analysis stage. Model outcomes suggest that climate change may significantly increase the spatial spread of Pv and Pf malaria with a numerical increase in the transmission window’s (TW) months, and a shift in the months of transmission. Some areas of the western Himalayan states are likely to have new foci of Pv malaria transmission. Interior parts of some southern and eastern states are likely to become more suitable for Pf malaria transmission. Study has also identified the regions with a reduction in transmission months by the 2030s, leading to unstable malaria, and having the potential for malaria outbreaks. MDPI 2019-09-18 2019-09 /pmc/articles/PMC6766004/ /pubmed/31540493 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16183474 Text en © 2019 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Sarkar, Soma
Gangare, Vinay
Singh, Poonam
Dhiman, Ramesh C.
Shift in Potential Malaria Transmission Areas in India, Using the Fuzzy-Based Climate Suitability Malaria Transmission (FCSMT) Model under Changing Climatic Conditions
title Shift in Potential Malaria Transmission Areas in India, Using the Fuzzy-Based Climate Suitability Malaria Transmission (FCSMT) Model under Changing Climatic Conditions
title_full Shift in Potential Malaria Transmission Areas in India, Using the Fuzzy-Based Climate Suitability Malaria Transmission (FCSMT) Model under Changing Climatic Conditions
title_fullStr Shift in Potential Malaria Transmission Areas in India, Using the Fuzzy-Based Climate Suitability Malaria Transmission (FCSMT) Model under Changing Climatic Conditions
title_full_unstemmed Shift in Potential Malaria Transmission Areas in India, Using the Fuzzy-Based Climate Suitability Malaria Transmission (FCSMT) Model under Changing Climatic Conditions
title_short Shift in Potential Malaria Transmission Areas in India, Using the Fuzzy-Based Climate Suitability Malaria Transmission (FCSMT) Model under Changing Climatic Conditions
title_sort shift in potential malaria transmission areas in india, using the fuzzy-based climate suitability malaria transmission (fcsmt) model under changing climatic conditions
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6766004/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31540493
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16183474
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