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How many child deaths can be averted in Nigeria? Assessing state-level prospects of achieving 2030 sustainable development goals for neonatal and under-five mortality

Background: Nigeria’s neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR) are 39 per 1,000 and 120 per 1,000 live births, respectively. On average, 0.23 million neonates and 0.7 million under-five children die every year, but some states contribute more to this burden than others. If...

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Autores principales: Ogbuoji, Osondu, Yamey, Gavin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: F1000 Research Limited 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6773975/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31588424
http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/gatesopenres.12928.1
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author Ogbuoji, Osondu
Yamey, Gavin
author_facet Ogbuoji, Osondu
Yamey, Gavin
author_sort Ogbuoji, Osondu
collection PubMed
description Background: Nigeria’s neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR) are 39 per 1,000 and 120 per 1,000 live births, respectively. On average, 0.23 million neonates and 0.7 million under-five children die every year, but some states contribute more to this burden than others. If the country is to meet its sustainable development goal (SDG) targets for NMR and U5MR, it needs to make progress at both the national and subnational levels. Methods: Using the 2016-2017 Nigeria Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS), we estimated state-level neonatal and under-five mortality rates.  Next, we estimated how long it would take for each state to reach the SDG targets for NMR and U5MR. Finally, we estimated the average number of neonatal and under-five deaths that could be averted between 2018 and 2030 in each state under different scenarios. Results: At current average annual rates of decline, Nigeria is unlikely to meet both sustainable development goals targets for NMR and U5MR. At the subnational level, some states are close to or have met both NMR and U5MR targets, while others are projected to meet the targets as late as 2088 (58 years delayed). Between 850,000 and 1.89 million neonatal deaths could be averted between 2018 and 2030, while 3.1 million to 5.96 million under-five deaths could be averted over the same period. Conclusions: Nigeria has the potential to achieve its SDG targets for NMR and U5MR, and in the process avert millions of preventable child deaths. But this will not happen under a business-as-usual approach. The NMR and U5MR trajectories achieved by high-performing states is evidence that achieving these SDG targets is possible. For the country to achieve positive results nationally, systems that encourage peer learning and transfer of technical expertise between states are needed.
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spelling pubmed-67739752019-10-03 How many child deaths can be averted in Nigeria? Assessing state-level prospects of achieving 2030 sustainable development goals for neonatal and under-five mortality Ogbuoji, Osondu Yamey, Gavin Gates Open Res Research Article Background: Nigeria’s neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR) are 39 per 1,000 and 120 per 1,000 live births, respectively. On average, 0.23 million neonates and 0.7 million under-five children die every year, but some states contribute more to this burden than others. If the country is to meet its sustainable development goal (SDG) targets for NMR and U5MR, it needs to make progress at both the national and subnational levels. Methods: Using the 2016-2017 Nigeria Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS), we estimated state-level neonatal and under-five mortality rates.  Next, we estimated how long it would take for each state to reach the SDG targets for NMR and U5MR. Finally, we estimated the average number of neonatal and under-five deaths that could be averted between 2018 and 2030 in each state under different scenarios. Results: At current average annual rates of decline, Nigeria is unlikely to meet both sustainable development goals targets for NMR and U5MR. At the subnational level, some states are close to or have met both NMR and U5MR targets, while others are projected to meet the targets as late as 2088 (58 years delayed). Between 850,000 and 1.89 million neonatal deaths could be averted between 2018 and 2030, while 3.1 million to 5.96 million under-five deaths could be averted over the same period. Conclusions: Nigeria has the potential to achieve its SDG targets for NMR and U5MR, and in the process avert millions of preventable child deaths. But this will not happen under a business-as-usual approach. The NMR and U5MR trajectories achieved by high-performing states is evidence that achieving these SDG targets is possible. For the country to achieve positive results nationally, systems that encourage peer learning and transfer of technical expertise between states are needed. F1000 Research Limited 2019-05-09 /pmc/articles/PMC6773975/ /pubmed/31588424 http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/gatesopenres.12928.1 Text en Copyright: © 2019 Ogbuoji O and Yamey G http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Ogbuoji, Osondu
Yamey, Gavin
How many child deaths can be averted in Nigeria? Assessing state-level prospects of achieving 2030 sustainable development goals for neonatal and under-five mortality
title How many child deaths can be averted in Nigeria? Assessing state-level prospects of achieving 2030 sustainable development goals for neonatal and under-five mortality
title_full How many child deaths can be averted in Nigeria? Assessing state-level prospects of achieving 2030 sustainable development goals for neonatal and under-five mortality
title_fullStr How many child deaths can be averted in Nigeria? Assessing state-level prospects of achieving 2030 sustainable development goals for neonatal and under-five mortality
title_full_unstemmed How many child deaths can be averted in Nigeria? Assessing state-level prospects of achieving 2030 sustainable development goals for neonatal and under-five mortality
title_short How many child deaths can be averted in Nigeria? Assessing state-level prospects of achieving 2030 sustainable development goals for neonatal and under-five mortality
title_sort how many child deaths can be averted in nigeria? assessing state-level prospects of achieving 2030 sustainable development goals for neonatal and under-five mortality
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6773975/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31588424
http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/gatesopenres.12928.1
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