QTL mapping and genome-wide prediction of heat tolerance in multiple connected populations of temperate maize

Climate change will lead to increasing heat stress in the temperate regions of the world. The objectives of this study were the following: (I) to assess the phenotypic and genotypic diversity of traits related to heat tolerance of maize seedlings and dissect their genetic architecture by quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping, (II) to compare the prediction ability of genome-wide prediction models using various numbers of KASP (Kompetitive Allele Specific PCR genotyping) single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and RAD (restriction site-associated DNA sequencing) SNPs, and (III) to examine the prediction ability of intra-, inter-, and mixed-pool calibrations. For the heat susceptibility index of five of the nine studied traits, we identified a total of six QTL, each explaining individually between 7 and 9% of the phenotypic variance. The prediction abilities observed for the genome-wide prediction models were high, especially for the within-population calibrations, and thus, the use of such approaches to select for heat tolerance at seedling stage is recommended. Furthermore, we have shown that for the traits examined in our study, populations created from inter-pool crosses are suitable training sets to predict populations derived from intra-pool crosses.