Vascular calcification does not predict anastomotic leak or conduit necrosis following oesophagectomy

BACKGROUND: Anastomotic leaks (AL) and gastric conduit necrosis (CN) are serious complications following oesophagectomy. Some studies have suggested that vascular calcification may be associated with an increased AL rate, but this has not been validated in a United Kingdom population. AIM: To investigate whether vascular calcification identified on the pre-operative computed tomography (CT) scan is predictive of AL or CN. METHODS: Routine pre-operative CT scans of 414 patients who underwent oesophagectomy for malignancy with oesophagogastric anastomosis at the Queen Elizabeth Hospital Birmingham between 2006 and 2018 were retrospectively analysed. Calcification of the proximal aorta, distal aorta, coeliac trunk and branches of the coeliac trunk was scored by two reviewers. The relationship between these calcification scores and occurrence of AL and CN was then analysed. The Esophagectomy Complications Consensus Group definition of AL and CN was used. RESULTS: Complication data were available in n = 411 patients, of whom 16.7% developed either AL (15.8%) or CN (3.4%). Rates of AL were significantly higher in female patients, at 23.0%, compared to 13.9% in males (P = 0.047). CN was significantly more common in females, (8.0% vs 2.2%, P = 0.014), patients with diabetes (10.6% vs 2.5%, P = 0.014), a history of smoking (10.3% vs 2.3%, P = 0.008), and a higher American Society of Anaesthesiologists grade (P = 0.024). Out of the 14 conduit necroses, only 4 occurred without a concomitant AL. No statistically significant association was found between calcification of any of the vessels studied and either of these outcomes. Multivariable analyses were then performed to identify whether a combination of the calcification scores could be identified that would be significantly predictive of any of the outcomes. However, the stepwise approach did not select any factors for inclusion in the final models. The analysis was repeated for composite outcomes of those patients with either AL or CN (n = 69, 16.7%) and for those with both AL and CN (n = 10, 2.4%) and again, no significant associations were detected. In the subset of patients that developed these outcomes, no significant associations were detected between calcification and the severity of the complication. CONCLUSION: Calcification scoring was not significantly associated with Anastomotic Leak or CN in our study, therefore should not be used to identify patients who are high risk for these complications.