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The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue
Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world’s population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization....
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Nature Publishing Group UK
2019
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6784886/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31182801 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41564-019-0476-8 |
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author | Messina, Jane P. Brady, Oliver J. Golding, Nick Kraemer, Moritz U. G. Wint, G. R. William Ray, Sarah E. Pigott, David M. Shearer, Freya M. Johnson, Kimberly Earl, Lucas Marczak, Laurie B. Shirude, Shreya Davis Weaver, Nicole Gilbert, Marius Velayudhan, Raman Jones, Peter Jaenisch, Thomas Scott, Thomas W. Reiner, Robert C. Hay, Simon I. |
author_facet | Messina, Jane P. Brady, Oliver J. Golding, Nick Kraemer, Moritz U. G. Wint, G. R. William Ray, Sarah E. Pigott, David M. Shearer, Freya M. Johnson, Kimberly Earl, Lucas Marczak, Laurie B. Shirude, Shreya Davis Weaver, Nicole Gilbert, Marius Velayudhan, Raman Jones, Peter Jaenisch, Thomas Scott, Thomas W. Reiner, Robert C. Hay, Simon I. |
author_sort | Messina, Jane P. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world’s population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6784886 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2019 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-67848862019-10-11 The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue Messina, Jane P. Brady, Oliver J. Golding, Nick Kraemer, Moritz U. G. Wint, G. R. William Ray, Sarah E. Pigott, David M. Shearer, Freya M. Johnson, Kimberly Earl, Lucas Marczak, Laurie B. Shirude, Shreya Davis Weaver, Nicole Gilbert, Marius Velayudhan, Raman Jones, Peter Jaenisch, Thomas Scott, Thomas W. Reiner, Robert C. Hay, Simon I. Nat Microbiol Article Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world’s population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk. Nature Publishing Group UK 2019-06-10 2019 /pmc/articles/PMC6784886/ /pubmed/31182801 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41564-019-0476-8 Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2019 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Messina, Jane P. Brady, Oliver J. Golding, Nick Kraemer, Moritz U. G. Wint, G. R. William Ray, Sarah E. Pigott, David M. Shearer, Freya M. Johnson, Kimberly Earl, Lucas Marczak, Laurie B. Shirude, Shreya Davis Weaver, Nicole Gilbert, Marius Velayudhan, Raman Jones, Peter Jaenisch, Thomas Scott, Thomas W. Reiner, Robert C. Hay, Simon I. The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue |
title | The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue |
title_full | The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue |
title_fullStr | The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue |
title_full_unstemmed | The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue |
title_short | The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue |
title_sort | current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6784886/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31182801 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41564-019-0476-8 |
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