Time Trends And Age-Period-Cohort Effects On The Incidence Of Gastric Cancer In Changle From 2003 To 2012

PURPOSE: Although the incidence of gastric cancer in China has declined over the past decades, they were still much higher than the average of global. This aim of this study was to describe the trends and age-period-cohort effects on gastric cancer incidence from 2003 to 2012 in Changle and to explore the potential reason. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data on patients with gastric cancer diagnosed between 2003 and 2012 were collected by the population-based Changle cancer registration (n=4111). Age-standardized incidence rates of gastric cancer were calculated and joinpoint regression was used to evaluate the trends of gastric cancer incidence. Time trends in gastric cancer incidence by the period of diagnosis and birth cohort were analyzed by sex. Age-period-cohort analysis was performed to investigate the independent effects of age, period of diagnosis and birth cohort among over 25-year-old residents. RESULTS: A steady downward trend was observed among men, with the incidence ranging from 96.15 per 100,000 in 2003 to 62.6 per 100,000 in 2012 (APC, −5.1%; 95% CI: −6.9 to −3.2%). A similarly declining trend was observed among women with the incidence ranging from 34.5 per 100,000 to 15.7 per 100,000 (APC, −5.7%; 95% CI: −9.3 to −2.0%). Age-period-cohort model of incidence rate showed increasing age effect and decreasing period of diagnosis effects in both men and women. Birth cohorts exhibited a decreasing trend in the incidence among women who were born after 1935 and men after 1940. CONCLUSION: Recent decreases in the incidence of gastric cancer were due to decreased period of diagnosis and cohort effects, which was attributed to the improvements in their lifestyle and habits.