A Predictor of Pathological Complete Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Stratifies Triple Negative Breast Cancer Patients with High Risk of Recurrence

We developed a test to predict which patients will achieve pathological complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and which will have residual disease (RD). Gene expression data from pretreatment biopsies of patients with all breast cancer subtypes were combined into a 519-patient cohort containing 177 TNBC patients. Two RNA classifiers of 16 genes each were sequentially applied to the total cohort, classifying patients into 3 distinct classes. The test performance was further validated in an independent 304-patient cohort. The test accurately identified 70.5% (79/112) of pCR and 83.5% (340/407) of RD patients in the total population, and 75.0% (45/60) of pCR and 75.2% (88/117) of RD patients in the TNBC subset. For the independent cohort, the test identified 91.5% RD patients in the total population and 86.2% RD patients in the TNBC subset. However, the identification of pCR in both total and TNBC population are as low as 21.1% and 30%, respectively. The TNBC RD patients were subdivided by our classifiers, with one class showing significantly higher levels of Ki67 expression and having significantly poorer survival rates than the other classes. This stratification of patients may allow predicted residual disease classes to be assigned an alternative therapy.