Fewer ischemic strokes, despite an ageing population: stroke models from observed incidence in Norway 2010–2015

BACKGROUND: Stroke incidence rates have fallen in high-income countries over the last several decades, but findings regarding the trend over recent years have been mixed. The aim of the study was to describe and model temporal trends in incidence of stroke by age and sex between 2010 and 2015 in Norway, and to generate incidence projections towards year 2040. METHODS: All recorded strokes in Norway between 2010 and 2015 were extracted from the National Patient Registry and the National Cause of Death Registry. We report incidence by age, sex, and year; in raw numbers, per 100,000 person-years, by WHO and European standard populations; and generated statistical models by stroke type, age, sex, and year; and projected stroke incidence toward year 2040. RESULTS: The data covered 30.1 million person-years at risk, 53431 unique individuals hospitalized with a primary stroke diagnosis, and 6315 additional individuals registered as dead due to stroke. From 2010 to 2015, individuals suffering stroke per 100,000 person-years dropped from 239 to 195 (208 to 177 excluding immediate deaths). The decline was driven by ischemic strokes, with a statistically non-significant time trend for hemorrhagic stroke. CONCLUSIONS: The age-dependent incidence of ischemic strokes in Norway is declining rapidly, and more than compensates for the growth and ageing of the population. Comparisons with historic incidence statistics show that the reduction in incidence rates has accelerated over the last two decades.