Value of intra-operative Doppler sonographic measurements in predicting post-operative anastomotic leakage in rectal cancer: a prospective pilot study

BACKGROUND: Anastomotic leakage is a serious surgical complication in rectal cancer; however, effective evaluation methods for predicting anastomotic leakage individual risk in patients are not currently available. This study aimed to develop a method to evaluate the risk of leakage during surgery. METHODS: The 163 patients with rectal cancer, who had undergone anterior resection and low-ligation procedures for Doppler sonographic hemodynamic measurement from April 2011 to January 2015 in Peking University Cancer Hospital, were prospectively recruited. A predictive model was constructed based on the associations between anastomotic leakage and alterations in the anastomotic blood supply in the patients, using both univariate and multivariate statistical analyses, as well as diagnostic methodology evaluation, including Chi-square test, logistic regression model, and receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: The overall anastomotic leakage incidence was 9.2% (15/163). Doppler hemodynamic parameters whose reduction was significantly associated with anastomotic leakage were peak systolic velocity, pulsatility index, and resistance index. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of residual rates of peak systolic velocity, pulsatility index, and resistance index in predicting anastomotic leakage were 0.703 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.552–0.854), 0.729 (95% CI: 0.579–0.879), and 0.689 (95% CI: 0.522–0.856), respectively. The predictive model revealed that the patients with severely reduced blood-flow signal exhibited a significantly higher incidence rate of anastomotic leakage than those with sufficient blood supply (19.6% vs. 3.7%, P = 0.003), particularly the patients with low rectal cancer (25.9% vs. 3.9%, P = 0.007) and those receiving neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (32.1% vs. 3.7%, P = 0.001), independent of prophylactic ileostoma. Multivariate analysis revealed that insufficient blood supply of the anastomotic bowel was an independent risk factor for anastomotic leakage (odds ratio: 10.37, 95% CI: 2.703–42.735, P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: Based on this explorative study, Doppler sonographic hemodynamic measurement of the anastomotic bowel presented potential value in predicting anastomotic leakage.