Baseline Obesity Increases 25-Year Risk of Mortality due to Cerebrovascular Disease: Role of Race

Background: Although obesity may have a role as a risk factor for cerebrovascular mortality, less is known about how demographic and social groups differ in this regard. Aims: This study had two aims: first to investigate the predictive role of baseline obesity on long-term risk of mortality due to cerebrovascular disease, and second, to test racial variation in this effect. Methods: the Americans’ Changing Lives Study (ACL) 1986–2011 is a state of the art 25-year longitudinal cohort study. ACL followed a nationally representative sample of Blacks (n = 1156) and Whites (n = 2205) for up to 25 years. Baseline obesity was the main predictor of interest, time to cerebrovascular death was the main outcome of interest. Demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status (educational attainment and household income), health behaviors (exercise and smoking), and health (hypertension and depressive symptoms) at baseline were covariates. Cox proportional hazards models were used to test additive and multiplicative effects of obesity and race on the outcome. Results: From the total 3,361 individuals, 177 people died due to cerebrovascular causes (Whites and Blacks). In the pooled sample, baseline obesity did not predict cerebrovascular mortality (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.86, 0.49–1.51), independent of demographic, socioeconomic, health behaviors, and health factors at baseline. Race also interacted with baseline obesity on outcome (HR = 3.17, 1.09–9.21), suggesting a stronger predictive role of baseline obesity on cerebrovascular deaths for Black people compared to White individuals. According to the models that were run specific to each race, obesity predicted risk of cerebrovascular mortality for Blacks (HR = 2.51, 1.43–4.39) but not Whites (HR = 0.69, 0.31–1.53). Conclusions: Baseline obesity better predicts long-term risk of cerebrovascular death in Black individuals compared to White people. More research should explore factors that explain why racial differences exist in the effects of obesity on cerebrovascular outcome. Findings also have implications for personalized medicine.