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Dynamics of beneficial epidemics
Pathogens can spread epidemically through populations. Beneficial contagions, such as viruses that enhance host survival or technological innovations that improve quality of life, also have the potential to spread epidemically. How do the dynamics of beneficial biological and social epidemics differ...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2019
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6805938/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31641147 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-50039-w |
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author | Berdahl, Andrew Brelsford, Christa Bacco, Caterina De Dumas, Marion Ferdinand, Vanessa Grochow, Joshua A. Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent Kallus, Yoav Kempes, Christopher P. Kolchinsky, Artemy Larremore, Daniel B. Libby, Eric Power, Eleanor A. Stern, Caitlin A. Tracey, Brendan D. |
author_facet | Berdahl, Andrew Brelsford, Christa Bacco, Caterina De Dumas, Marion Ferdinand, Vanessa Grochow, Joshua A. Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent Kallus, Yoav Kempes, Christopher P. Kolchinsky, Artemy Larremore, Daniel B. Libby, Eric Power, Eleanor A. Stern, Caitlin A. Tracey, Brendan D. |
author_sort | Berdahl, Andrew |
collection | PubMed |
description | Pathogens can spread epidemically through populations. Beneficial contagions, such as viruses that enhance host survival or technological innovations that improve quality of life, also have the potential to spread epidemically. How do the dynamics of beneficial biological and social epidemics differ from those of detrimental epidemics? We investigate this question using a breadth-first modeling approach involving three distinct theoretical models. First, in the context of population genetics, we show that a horizontally-transmissible element that increases fitness, such as viral DNA, spreads superexponentially through a population, more quickly than a beneficial mutation. Second, in the context of behavioral epidemiology, we show that infections that cause increased connectivity lead to superexponential fixation in the population. Third, in the context of dynamic social networks, we find that preferences for increased global infection accelerate spread and produce superexponential fixation, but preferences for local assortativity halt epidemics by disconnecting the infected from the susceptible. We conclude that the dynamics of beneficial biological and social epidemics are characterized by the rapid spread of beneficial elements, which is facilitated in biological systems by horizontal transmission and in social systems by active spreading behavior of infected individuals. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6805938 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2019 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-68059382019-10-24 Dynamics of beneficial epidemics Berdahl, Andrew Brelsford, Christa Bacco, Caterina De Dumas, Marion Ferdinand, Vanessa Grochow, Joshua A. Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent Kallus, Yoav Kempes, Christopher P. Kolchinsky, Artemy Larremore, Daniel B. Libby, Eric Power, Eleanor A. Stern, Caitlin A. Tracey, Brendan D. Sci Rep Article Pathogens can spread epidemically through populations. Beneficial contagions, such as viruses that enhance host survival or technological innovations that improve quality of life, also have the potential to spread epidemically. How do the dynamics of beneficial biological and social epidemics differ from those of detrimental epidemics? We investigate this question using a breadth-first modeling approach involving three distinct theoretical models. First, in the context of population genetics, we show that a horizontally-transmissible element that increases fitness, such as viral DNA, spreads superexponentially through a population, more quickly than a beneficial mutation. Second, in the context of behavioral epidemiology, we show that infections that cause increased connectivity lead to superexponential fixation in the population. Third, in the context of dynamic social networks, we find that preferences for increased global infection accelerate spread and produce superexponential fixation, but preferences for local assortativity halt epidemics by disconnecting the infected from the susceptible. We conclude that the dynamics of beneficial biological and social epidemics are characterized by the rapid spread of beneficial elements, which is facilitated in biological systems by horizontal transmission and in social systems by active spreading behavior of infected individuals. Nature Publishing Group UK 2019-10-22 /pmc/articles/PMC6805938/ /pubmed/31641147 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-50039-w Text en © The Author(s) 2019 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Berdahl, Andrew Brelsford, Christa Bacco, Caterina De Dumas, Marion Ferdinand, Vanessa Grochow, Joshua A. Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent Kallus, Yoav Kempes, Christopher P. Kolchinsky, Artemy Larremore, Daniel B. Libby, Eric Power, Eleanor A. Stern, Caitlin A. Tracey, Brendan D. Dynamics of beneficial epidemics |
title | Dynamics of beneficial epidemics |
title_full | Dynamics of beneficial epidemics |
title_fullStr | Dynamics of beneficial epidemics |
title_full_unstemmed | Dynamics of beneficial epidemics |
title_short | Dynamics of beneficial epidemics |
title_sort | dynamics of beneficial epidemics |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6805938/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31641147 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-50039-w |
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