Sick leave due to musculoskeletal pain: determinants of distinct trajectories over 1 year

PURPOSE: This study aimed to identify sub-groups of workers with different trajectories of sick leave due to musculoskeletal pain over 1 year, and to investigate the extent to which the identified trajectories are associated with personal, occupational, lifestyle, and pain-related factors at baseline. METHODS: Data on 981 blue- and white-collar workers were analyzed in the DPHACTO cohort (2012–2014). The number of days on sick leave due to pain was reported using text messages at 4-week intervals across 1 year. Latent class growth analysis was used to distinguish sub-groups with different trajectories of sick leave. A web-based questionnaire at baseline was used to assess personal, occupational (physical and psychosocial), lifestyle, and pain-related factors. Multinomial regression models were constructed to determine associations between baseline factors and trajectories of sick leave (referencing no sick leave), with adjustment for potential confounders. RESULTS: Four distinct sub-groups were identified, with trajectories of sick leave due to pain ranging from no sick leave (prevalence 76%; average 0.5 days/year) to some days and increasing sick leave due to pain over 1 year (2%; 89 days/year). The increasing trajectory of sick leave was associated with higher perceived physical exertion, more time in manual work, less social community and influence at work, less leisure-time physical activity, smoking, and more severe symptoms (e.g., multisite pain, low back pain intensity, and pain interference). CONCLUSIONS: We identified four distinct trajectories of sick leave due to musculoskeletal pain. The sub-group with increasing sick leave due to pain was associated with several modifiable physical and psychosocial factors at work and outside work, which may have implications for prevention. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s00420-019-01447-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.