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Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea
The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea, and these loads might change in a changing climate. We show that the impact from climate change by mid-century is probably less than the direct impact of changing socioeconomic factors such as land use, a...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Springer Netherlands
2019
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6814641/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31542889 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01243-5 |
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author | Bartosova, Alena Capell, René Olesen, Jørgen E. Jabloun, Mohamed Refsgaard, Jens Christian Donnelly, Chantal Hyytiäinen, Kari Pihlainen, Sampo Zandersen, Marianne Arheimer, Berit |
author_facet | Bartosova, Alena Capell, René Olesen, Jørgen E. Jabloun, Mohamed Refsgaard, Jens Christian Donnelly, Chantal Hyytiäinen, Kari Pihlainen, Sampo Zandersen, Marianne Arheimer, Berit |
author_sort | Bartosova, Alena |
collection | PubMed |
description | The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea, and these loads might change in a changing climate. We show that the impact from climate change by mid-century is probably less than the direct impact of changing socioeconomic factors such as land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater emissions. We compare results from dynamic modelling of nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea under projections of climate change and scenarios for shared socioeconomic pathways. Average nutrient loads are projected to increase by 8% and 14% for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively, in response to climate change scenarios. In contrast, changes in the socioeconomic drivers can lead to a decrease of 13% and 6% or an increase of 11% and 9% in nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively, depending on the pathway. This indicates that policy decisions still play a major role in climate adaptation and in managing eutrophication in the Baltic Sea region. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-019-01243-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6814641 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2019 |
publisher | Springer Netherlands |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-68146412019-11-06 Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea Bartosova, Alena Capell, René Olesen, Jørgen E. Jabloun, Mohamed Refsgaard, Jens Christian Donnelly, Chantal Hyytiäinen, Kari Pihlainen, Sampo Zandersen, Marianne Arheimer, Berit Ambio Ecosystem Governance in the Baltic Sea The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea, and these loads might change in a changing climate. We show that the impact from climate change by mid-century is probably less than the direct impact of changing socioeconomic factors such as land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater emissions. We compare results from dynamic modelling of nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea under projections of climate change and scenarios for shared socioeconomic pathways. Average nutrient loads are projected to increase by 8% and 14% for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively, in response to climate change scenarios. In contrast, changes in the socioeconomic drivers can lead to a decrease of 13% and 6% or an increase of 11% and 9% in nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively, depending on the pathway. This indicates that policy decisions still play a major role in climate adaptation and in managing eutrophication in the Baltic Sea region. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-019-01243-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Springer Netherlands 2019-09-21 2019-11 /pmc/articles/PMC6814641/ /pubmed/31542889 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01243-5 Text en © The Author(s) 2019 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. |
spellingShingle | Ecosystem Governance in the Baltic Sea Bartosova, Alena Capell, René Olesen, Jørgen E. Jabloun, Mohamed Refsgaard, Jens Christian Donnelly, Chantal Hyytiäinen, Kari Pihlainen, Sampo Zandersen, Marianne Arheimer, Berit Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea |
title | Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea |
title_full | Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea |
title_fullStr | Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea |
title_full_unstemmed | Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea |
title_short | Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea |
title_sort | future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the baltic sea |
topic | Ecosystem Governance in the Baltic Sea |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6814641/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31542889 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01243-5 |
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